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To: marginmike who wrote (279828)3/11/2004 7:53:41 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 436258
 
for the record I have nearly given up on stocks.
It seems far easier for me to figure out where interst rates are headed vs any other type of play.

For one thing they have a guaranteed implied target.
Go out far enough, see whether or not hikes are priced in and if they are and you do not think they are coming you have an EXACT target. If you think cuts are coming as I do on euribor, you place bets (calls) such that you win as long as HIKES do not happen. You win small if hikes do not happen, you win HUGE if cuts happen (or get priced in).

That is what I am doing. With calls, short puts, and futures in 4 currencies.

M



To: marginmike who wrote (279828)3/12/2004 8:47:10 AM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
>>>sophisticated enough to sell and buy futures<<<

By the time you get sophisticated you don't have any money left to be sophisticated with. I got extremely sophisticated a good many years ago with one contract in silver futures, which eventually ate up most of my capital.


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