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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (3033)	3/11/2004 9:44:58 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 51390

Spain attack tied to upcoming elections? If Islamic militants perpetrated the March 11 attacks in Madrid -- the responsible party or parties have not been identified -- they might have been seeking to influence the outcome of the country's national elections set for March 14. If so, they miscalculated. If Spain's populace becomes convinced that the attackers were Muslims, whoever is elected likely will align Spain even more with the United States in the global war on terrorism. Analysis Spain's main political parties suspended campaigning for the March 14 general elections after at least 10 bombs exploded on four Madrid commuter trains during the morning rush hour. They gave no indication the elections would be postponed, although Spain's central and regional governments likely will redouble security for weeks to come. Leaders of the ruling conservative Popular Party (PP) and the Spanish Workers Socialist Party (PSOE) condemned the perpetrators of the worst attack since the end of Gen. Francisco Franco's dictatorship in 1975 as "scum and criminals." Leaders in both main parties also agreed the attacks likely were carried out by the Basque separatist group ETA, although two Islamist militant groups also have claimed responsibility and no official determination has yet been made. If ETA was behind the attacks, it might have assured the re-election of the incumbent PP, which under departing Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar implemented a tough security policy against the Basque separatist group. If ETA's goal was to weaken the PP at the polls or uphold the separatist cause, it likely achieved the opposite results. PP -- and even the PSOE if it wins -- would adopt even harsher measures against ETA, and the cause of Basque independence would be buried for years. While ETA is the Spanish government's principal suspect, a previously unknown group that calls itself the Lions of al-Mufridoon, or Lions of al-Muwahidoun, reportedly has claimed credit for the multiple bomb attacks. A second group, Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigade, also has claimed responsibility. If Islamist militants were responsible, was the timing of the attack only three days before Spain's national elections a coincidence? Islamic militant groups like al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah have not shown any particular preference for attacking on symbolic dates. Instead, attacks have been launched based on expediency -- when everything came together at the right time for the attackers, who then immolated themselves with their victims. It is also possible that if Islamists carried out the bombings, one of their goals was to influence the elections. Voter surveys conducted as recently as last week show the ruling PP headed for a third consecutive victory in national elections with Aznar's handpicked successor, Mariano Rajoy. PSOE candidate Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is in second place. The PP is expected to capture approximately 44 percent of the vote and win between 162 and 172 seats in the 350-member National Assembly, compared to the 183 seats it won in the 2000 elections. It would not have an absolute majority and would have to negotiate coalitions, most likely with nationalist groups in Catalunia and Galicia. The PSOE is expected to capture about 38 percent of the vote and about 141 seats, up 16 seats from the 125 it won in 2000. The PP and PSOE are not that far apart in terms of the programs they are offering Spanish voters. Rajoy has pledged to maintain Aznar's policies, except "slightly better." Rodriguez Zapatero also has promised more economic reforms and policies to attract foreign investment, create jobs and improve living standards. Both candidates have promised to give Spain a stronger voice in the European Union and continue the Spanish economic "reconquista" of Latin America. The only issue on which Rajoy and Rodriguez Zapatero differ radically is Spain's alignment with the United States in the global war on terrorism. Rodriguez Zapatero has pledged to bring Spanish troops in Iraq home immediately if he is elected. Most Spaniards, even longtime PP supporters, bitterly opposed Aznar's support for the United States in the Iraq war. One of the reasons Aznar retired from Spanish politics was to prevent that bitterness from tainting the electoral prospects of Rajoy and the incumbant PP. If Rajoy wins, Spain would remain aligned with the United States against Islamist militant groups. If Rodriguez Zapatero won, Spain would disengage from the U.S.-led war. If Islamists attacked Madrid deliberately only hours before national elections, perhaps they hoped it would collapse support for the PP and boost the PSOE's chances. If so, they committed a gross miscalculation. The countries of the Arab Islamic world tend to be riven with fractures easily exploited by outsiders. This is not to belittle Arab societies, merely to point out that the West -- comprised of nation-states that have more social glue -- usually reacts to outside threats by closing ranks, not shattering into groups guided by ethnic or sectarian interests. The exceptions are states on the fringe of the West, such as in the Balkans, where the ideas of nation (ethnic identification) and state (political entity) do not coincide. The popular response in Spain to the tragedy likely will be an intense -- and sustained -- burst of nationalism and unity. The PP's chances likely have improved following these attacks. However, even if the PSOE were to win, Rodriguez Zapatero likely would not disengage Madrid from the U.S.-led war on terrorism if the Madrid attacks were carried out by Islamists. If the Spanish populace concludes they were attacked by external Islamist forces, the result will be a Spain even more committed to fighting global terrorism. Islamist groups in Spain will come under intense police and judicial scrutiny, with the National Assembly likely approving even tougher anti-terrorism laws. Anti-terrorism resources focused mainly on the Basque problem likely would be expanded to include covert intelligence operations aimed at ferreting out individuals or organizations that support or sympathize with Islamist militants. It is also likely, if Islamists were responsible, that Spain's government would lead a forceful charge to compel the European Union to adopt a much tougher approach to battling terrorism. This could bring Madrid into more serious discussion with larger EU powers like France and Germany over the extent to which the EU should align with Washington. Madrid's position, likely to be embraced by the Central European countries about to join the union, will be that Brussels must cooperate more broadly with the United States.