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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (1856)	3/12/2004 9:40:26 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

the unemployment rate is very misleading, and it is not related to what you were discussing with JWCB. the reason is they keep lowering the labor force participation rate in order to maintain stable unemployment rate. if you are out of work for 6 months in the US, you are no longer "unemployed". instead, you are considered to be uninterested in working, so you are no longer part of the labor force or the unemployment rate. more than a quarter million people exited the labor force in this manner in January. if the unemployment rate were calculated using the same labor force participation rate was was calculated in Feb 2001, it would be 7.4%, not 5.6%. there are a number of other factors as well, which puts the effective unemployment rate at around 10-11%. i have not heard of any knowledgeable financial observers who take the headline US unemployment rate seriously. otherwise, one would be forced into the ridiculous position of trying to explain a declining unemployment rate in the face of a drop in employment of nearly 3 million actual jobs, even as the working age population grows by 144,000 a month. the shortfall in terms of job additions between this expansion and a typical expansion at this stage is something like 8 million jobs (5-6 million or so net adds, instead of 2.5 to 3 million lost). when you consider this, i think you will agree that the unemployment rate is pretty meaningless except for political purposes.

To: zonder who wrote (1856)	3/12/2004 10:01:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Here is Mauldin on unemployment magic frontlinethoughts.com

To: zonder who wrote (1856)	3/12/2004 11:55:20 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

you are consistent in your extreme naivete or ignorance so you look to the govt definition for guiding your statistical verifications? naive, to say the least how do you define a "work force" ? I use those who want to work and would if they could NOT to exclude those who are discouraged I noticed, as can others, that you barely address the point at hand, and get personal or you address the point with incredible laughable ignorance "That is how all countries calculate unemployment - i.e. it is not a conspiracy." the USA uses a deceptive method of not counting those who are labeled as DISCOURAGED so if a worker is beyond unemployed, and does not leven ook, he/she suddenly becomes out of sight ??? this is the ultimate in deception this is NOT how Europe counts theirs, thus they not only report a higher jobless rate in France and Germany, BUT THEY MOCK THE AMERICAN METHOD, EVEN IN THEIR PRESS and I believe you are in Monaco ??? so your ignorance extends even to your own home ground stick around here, you might learn some things I gave you about a dozen opportunities to act like a responsible adult in acknowledging my CORRECT JYen breakout call last October with the inverse Head & Shoulders bull pattern YOU DID NOT RESPOND, PROBABLY BECAUSE YOU ARE PROUD instead, you point to some strong fund mgmt performance record which is very much off the mark, deflecting from the point at hand I stick it to people who are intellectually dishonest you are one perhaps you failed to recognize the H&S pattern because it was upside down like your thought process YOU WILL NOT FIND MORONS ON THIS THREAD IT IS FULL OF EXTREMELY SMART PEOPLE NOTICE YOUR MORONIC POST WAS SHOT DOWN BY OTHERS AS WELL if you cannot add anything meaningful and useful, please depart as with me, others here do not suffer fools well oy oy oy has your fund's crack technical analyst yet recognized basic chart patterns ??? what? no comment on the validity of GDP hedonics either? / jim p.s. it is entirely possible that in a few years, the idle discouraged and down&out former workers will be 3-5 larger in their numbers, even as your recognized unemployment rate heads down under 4.0% what is truly astonishing is your level of adolescent intellectual behavior