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Politics : GOPwinger Lies/Distortions/Omissions/Perversions of Truth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (6134)	3/12/2004 7:57:52 PM
From: PartyTime	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 173976

Back on topic: We are working on a report on the Madrid bombings and will hopefully be releasing it shortly but I wanted to get two important points out now. 1) If the bombing was the work of al-Qaeda, there is a significant risk of a major follow-on attack either in Spain or another target country. Prior to 9-11 al-Qaeda successfully executed major operations at a rate of about one every 1-2 years and conducted little or no low-level attacks of significance. In the post-9-11 period, the rate of attack has more than doubled. With two major attacks in 2002 and five major attacks in 2003. In addition, the group has initiated a second-tier of low-level operations such as the shooting in Failaka, Kuwait against US Marines and the crashing of a fuel truck into a synagogue in Djerba, Tunisia. Al-Qaeda affiliates have also stepped up their operational activity to a level never before seen. We can no longer expect 12-month periods to pass between attacks. In 2002, there were only 53 days between the attack on the French-flagged oil tanker, The Limburg, and the SAM attack and vehicular bombings that occurred in Mombasa, Kenya. During May 2003, there were only three days between the vehicular bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and the suicide bombings in Casablanca, Morocco. In November of 2003 there were only seven days between the Riyadh attack and the attack against the synagogues in Istanbul, Turkey. It took only another five days then for the group to launch a second round of strikes against targets in Istanbul, specifically the HSBC Bank HQ and the British Consulate. Al-Qaeda has not only dramatically shortened the period of time between major operations to as little as three days, it has also demonstrated its ability to hit targets repeatedly in the same country during the same year and in as short a period as five days. Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia suffered two major attacks in 2003. In the case of Saudi Arabia, even extensive raids, arrests, seizures and the deaths of al-Qaeda operatives did not prevent the group from successfully executing an attack. Speaking about its operational tempo in a book released on 3 September 2003, entitled "The Attack of 11 Rabi 1: The Operation of East Riyadh and Our War with America and Its Allies", al-Qaeda wrote, "It is necessary to realize that the al-Qaeda organization in its war with Americans relies on strategically expanding the domain of the battle and the exhaustion of the enemy, which imposes its interests over the world, with successive and varied attacks. The rate of attacks before 9-11 was one operation every two years but after the blessed Manhattan attack the rate increased to more than two operations per year and the battlefield expanded, priceless advantages. So the enemy that needed only to protect its own land now needs to protect its vast interests in every land. Every time the rate of attack changes their exhaustion grows." 2) There is still a popular misconception that al-Qaeda does not claim responsibility for its attacks. While this was true to a certain degree prior to 9-11, it is not the case in the post-9-11 period. Al-Qaeda has almost without fail issued claims of responsibility for all its direct major and low-level operations since 9-11. In fact, the group has gone well beyond simply issuing claim statements, and has even released audio/video of the operations and the preparations taken before the attacks. When talking about attacks conducted by affiliates, the record is much more mixed. - Ben Venzke intelcenter.com