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Technology Stocks : 3G Wireless: Coming Soon or Here Now? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (21)	3/12/2004 8:19:26 PM
From: quartersawyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

<<There's precious little in the way of 3G handset launches or meaningful 3G product demonstrations.>> Could have something to do with the subject of the years of archived volumes of reporting of poor interoperation of 2GSM within variations among vendors' UMTS infrastructure, which must now be nearly resolved for there to be any optimism at all for 2004. Obviously the vendors could not have had handset chipsets ready in a matrix of unstable infrastructure. Now the problem is multimedia software implementations among the handset players. If I were Vodafone....(sorry. I know. I'm not Vodafone.) A bit less line-towing (not "toeing", but towing, like a mule with a barge) by Carlo might have freed him to talk about capacity issues and to work out and state the etiology of these delays , not just saw on about applications and handsets, just half a step up from "who needs 3G". Everybody knows that Sarin and Li are pissed at Nokia, and why. (Uggh. I sense a Moebian debate icpf.cas.cz Doesn't mean they won't go forward from here... China trades with Japan, and so on. ----------------------- From all that came out of Cannes, I found this most interesting ( maybe Carlo figures it as hype): 3G capacity crunch 3GSM Daily MCI News feed 25 February 2004 WCDMA operators will be faced with a capacity crunch in some urban centres as soon as a year after launching services to the mass market, Christoph Caselitz, president of Siemens mobile Networks, told the 3GSM Daily yesterday. That will force operators into another round of network infrastructure spend, much of it in the TDD spectrum that most European operators bought along with the FDD spectrum that they are using for WCDMA.... "When the capacity of WCDMA is exhausted we will see TDD-based expansion in 2006/2007", said Caselitz. Considering that most large 3G operators such as Vodafone and T-Mobile do not expect bulk shipments of WCDMA handsets until late this year, and the development of a mass market from 2005, Caselitz's timescale gives them only 12 to 24 months before they have to start thinking about boosting network capacity. The reason for the eventual network blockage, says Caselitz, is that in high-density population centres heavy use of mobile data will stretch the limits of the WCDMA technology. "If you are sitting in a room such as this with five other people, all using a data card connected at 384kbps, that cell is booked. You won't even be able to put in a voice call." Caselitz says that this network expansion will first come in the form of extra WCDMA equipment deployments, but he expects TDD-based solutions such as TD-SCDMA to help make up the difference for operators struggling with the capacity constraints of WCDMA. "It would be a mistake to get the impression that all WCDMA network capacity will be exhausted very soon, he said, "but in dense urban areas with heavy users that is possible...." telecoms.com ------------------------- Here's one among a few references to a UMTS TDD Alliance, shy most of the big names, but including NextWave and Samsung: unstrung.com ------------------------- From UMTS TDD vendor IPWireless: ipwireless.com Some of their claims under "Operators' Solutions" sound too good to be true. Hype, that is. But I can only judge it superficially. Knowledgeable perspective would be appreciated.