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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dave who wrote (18569)3/13/2004 2:19:36 AM
From: Elroy JetsonRespond to of 306849
 
Many of us are life-long saver's. Isn't the Fed's actions making us all chumps?

Yes for a time. But the problems began earlier.

Let's review how the lower tax rates of the Reagan "Tax Reform Act of 1986" removed incentives for saving and investment.
It did create a huge bubble of spending and debt.


Personal Savings Rate
home.pacbell.net

Percentage of income allocated to investment
home.pacbell.net

But the tax act of 1986 removed the deduction for consumer credit, shifting most new debt creation to home loans.

Home Owners Equity as a percentage of Household Real Estate
home.pacbell.net

When the typical American retires they have a pathetic amount of home equity remaining.
home.pacbell.net

Q.) What causes economic depressions?

A.) Excessive debts.


home.pacbell.net

The Federal Reserve has made desperate moves to keep debt growing bringing interest rates down from 6.5% to 1% while the dollar rapidly declines in value. Can't demand stimulated by zero interest rates and deficit spending work forever?

But where are the jobs?

home.pacbell.net

Harvard economist Joseph Schumpeter said,

"Policy does not allow a choice between depression and no depression, but between depression now and a worse depression later. "Monetary inflation pushed far enough would undoubtedly turn depression into the sham prosperity so familiar from European postwar (WW-I) experience, and would, in the end, lead to a collapse worse than the one it was called in to remedy."

For "recovery is sound only if it does come of itself. For any revival which is merely due to artificial stimulus leaves part of the work of depressions undone and adds, to an undigested remnant of maladjustment, new maladjustment of its own which has to be liquidated in turn, thus threatening business with another worse crisis ahead"

Economist Friedrich Hayek said,

"The creation of artificial demand must mean that part of the available resources is again led into the wrong direction and a definite and lasting adjustment is again postponed. And even if the absorption of the unemployed resources were to be quickened in this way, it would only mean that the seed would already be sown for new disturbances and new crises."

I understand the Bankruptcy Law will be changed this year criminalizing non-payment of debts. Isn't this a welcome return to traditional values? I guess it depends on which traditions you favour.

"At this festive season of the year, Mr Scrooge," said the gentleman, taking up a pen, "it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the Poor and destitute, who suffer greatly at the present time. Many thousands are in want of common necessaries; hundreds of thousands are in want of common comforts, sir.

"Are there no prisons?" asked Scrooge.

"Plenty of prisons," said the gentleman, laying down the pen again.

"And the Union workhouses." demanded Scrooge. "Are they still in operation?"

"They are. Still," returned the gentleman, "I wish I could say they were not."

"The Treadmill and the Poor Law are in full vigour, then?" said Scrooge.

"Both very busy, sir."

"Oh. I was afraid, from what you said at first, that something had occurred to stop them in their useful course," said Scrooge. "I"m very glad to hear it."

"Under the impression that they scarcely furnish Christian cheer of mind or body to the multitude," returned the gentleman, "a few of us are endeavouring to raise a fund to buy the Poor some meat and drink, and means of warmth. We choose this time, because it is a time, of all others, when Want is keenly felt, and Abundance rejoices. What shall I put you down for?"

"Nothing!" Scrooge replied.

"You wish to be anonymous?"

"I wish to be left alone," said Scrooge. "Since you ask me what I wish, gentlemen, that is my answer. I don't make merry myself at Christmas and I can't afford to make idle people merry. I help to support the establishments I have mentioned-they cost enough; and those who are badly off must go there."

"Many can't go there; and many would rather die."

"If they would rather die," said Scrooge, "they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population. Besides - excuse me - I don't know that."

"But you might know it," observed the gentleman.

"It's not my business," Scrooge returned. "It's enough for a man to understand his own business, and not to interfere with other people's. Mine occupies me constantly. Good afternoon, gentlemen!"

Seeing clearly that it would be useless to pursue their point, the gentlemen withdrew. Scrooge resumed his labours with an improved opinion of himself, and in a more facetious temper than was usual with him.



To: Dave who wrote (18569)3/13/2004 2:47:50 AM
From: Elroy JetsonRespond to of 306849
 
I too am a little pissed off with our new direction, a nation of debtors. But I have faith that being a saver will pay off in the end.

In the mean time I can only assume the Bush gang and the Fed is following the dictums of Doctor Samuel Johnson (1789-1784)

"Small debts are like small shot; they are rattling on every side, and can scarcely be escaped without a wound -
but great debts are like cannon; of loud noise, but of little danger.
"

"Whatever is found to gratify the publick, will be multiplied by the emulation of venders beyond necessity or use.
This plenty, indeed, produces cheapness, but cheapness always ends in negligence and depravation.
"

hollowaypages.com



To: Dave who wrote (18569)3/13/2004 3:01:44 AM
From: laura_bushRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Are you retired and drawing SS and Medicare insurance benefits, Dave?

I don't mean this personally, but isn't the entire state of FL heavily weighted demographically by that sector?

It's easily understandable that when one has basic necessities of survival "covered" that disposable income spending -- and perhaps even assumption of mortgage debt in times of unprecedented low borrowing rates -- is higher than in locations where half the population is struggling to keep jobs -- or find new ones.



To: Dave who wrote (18569)3/13/2004 10:04:04 AM
From: bentwayRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
I don't know if the sky is falling. Like you, I'm debt free, have a paid-off house, etc. I'm watching CSPAN at the moment, and they've got the author of "Credit Card Nation" on. According to Robert Manning, Americans owe 620 billion of credit card debt, $13,000 per household. Paying down credit card debt is the primary reason for refinancing a residence. So, you, I, and most of the people on this thread aren't typical. Be positive! With your "mountain of cash" you should be hoping for the collapse of the American economy so you can buy assets and securities at rock bottom prices.