SPRINGFIELD - Democrat John Kerry would handily defeat President George Bush in Illinois if the election were held today, a new Copley News Service poll shows.
That result may reflect the fact that fewer than half of Illinoisans believe Bush is doing an "excellent" or "good" job as president, according to the same poll. But Kerry also only is ahead of Bush because of huge support in Chicago, a Democratic stronghold.
Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted the poll of 625 registered voters Monday through Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Asked whom they would vote for if the election were held today, 47 percent said Kerry, while 39 percent said Bush. Two percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader, while 12 percent were undecided.
The results do not surprise Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.
"Illinois is a Democrat-leaning state," Coker said. "Republicans have not carried it since Ronald Reagan. If Kerry is going to have any chance, Illinois is more of a must-win for him than Bush. If you see Bush pull ahead in Illinois, the race is probably over."
As might be expected, Kerry holds a huge lead, 58 percent to 29 percent, over Bush in heavily Democratic Chicago and Cook County. Ten percent are undecided.
In the once heavily Republican collar counties - Mason-Dixon considers them to be DuPage, McHenry, Lake, Will, Kankakee, Kane, Grundy and Kendall counties - Bush leads, but only by a 48 to 39 percent margin, with 11 percent undecided. Bush leads 45 to 38 percent in central Illinois, with 15 percent undecided. Bush also leads in southern Illinois, 44 to 39 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
Only 46 percent of Illinois voters think Bush is doing an excellent or good job. That is slightly lower than Bush's approval rating in early January, when Mason-Dixon did another poll on Bush's job performance, although the drop is within the poll's margin of error.
"Nationally, if (Bush's) rating is under 50, he'd be a goner," Coker said.
However, because Illinois already is a Democratic-leaning state, Bush's dwindling popularity here is not a serious worry to the campaign, Coker said.
"I wouldn't put Illinois in the battleground category yet," Coker said. "The Republican strategy will be defending the states they won last time and try to pick up a few they narrowly lost."
In the poll, Bush also lost ground on his handling of the war in Iraq and the nation's economy.
In early January, 50 percent of Illinois voters said they approved of Bush's handling of the Iraq war, while 41 percent said they disapproved and 9 percent were undecided. Now, 46 percent of Illinois voters approve of the way Bush is handling the Iraq situation, while the number of undecided has risen to 13 percent. The number of voters who disapprove of Bush's Iraq policy stayed steady at 41 percent.
On the economy, the poll shows that only 41 percent of voters approve of the way Bush is handling the economy. Fully 50 percent disapprove, with 9 percent undecided. Two months ago, 44 percent said they approved of Bush's economic policies, 46 percent disapproved and 10 percent were undecided.
Voters generally said they feel Kerry would do a better job than Bush in handling domestic issues, while they feel more comfortable with Bush when it comes to security issues, both international and domestic.
Asked who would do a better job in handling the economy and unemployment, 42 percent said Kerry, while 34 percent said Bush. Twenty-two percent said they were undecided.
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