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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: orkrious who wrote (1969)3/13/2004 7:55:16 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 116555
 
to be fair, I just finished reading Maund's article -- he ends up on the same note as I posted -- watch the key supports and ignore the rest -- we don't know what is going to happen. Neither do all the folks who have subscribers. I don't differ with his prescription.

A couple of finer pts -- one can use options in a couple of ways --

1) protective puts against a massacre at key times, if one does not wish to sell the manic peaks or during a questionable period. This CAN work (I've had limited success in 2002), but you have to be willing to be disciplined and realize that it is going to reduce your overall take (hedging costs) -- OTOH, it can reduce trading in and out; if done right it can help you not miss a big move up.

Also

2) For those who actively trade -- when you sell the breaking of a support level -- selling puts as the next one is approached or vol spikes significantly. I think you've done this some with NEM. To effectively do this, it is probably wise to follow the implied vol in the nearest strike over time. I wouldn't do it without having the cash to buy the shares if they were put to me, but different strokes for different folks.



To: orkrious who wrote (1969)3/13/2004 8:00:42 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
where's the standard deviations an all that jazz -- I mean if we are going to start betting on outcomes <g>

I think there are some more interesting plots you could gen there ...wish I had a ton of historical data to play with and a nice tool like I hope to be getting at work for estimation. IN the end, I probably wouldn't change much of what I am doing, but it's good clean fun.