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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich1 who wrote (1986)	3/14/2004 12:02:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I am primarily in interest rate plays. Have been since october. I have been in and out of gold and exited gold at 415 early (missed the run to 430) Was out of silver way to early. Got back in gold near 393 or so. One position way earlier than that. Got back in miners too late or too early depending on how you look at it but with an undersized position. Ahead on WHT but at small losses on most of the rest of them. Exited silver miners near the top in those stocks and still am out. I would guess gold/silver/miners is at most 10% of what I have. My silver position is a bull calendar spread and the short side is may 6.80 long aug 6.40. It would be nice (for me if silver has another leg down. Obviously I am ahead here but it is to my advantage to hav gold stay at or under $7 and above say 6.70. If it just takes off and keeps going I win but I would like to see the 6.80 go out nearly worthless so I can write it again. I am playing gold with calls without a lot of conviction either. It can easily get hammered when Europe cuts interest rates, and I think europe will do that in a 2-3 month time frame. If europe heads into a recession that will also lend support to the US$ (as the stronger economy, and I use stronger loosely here). There are lost of reasons to be bullish and bearish on gold. I am mildly bullish. Mish