SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (10117)3/14/2004 6:41:33 PM
From: loantech  Respond to of 110194
 
<Right now we have huge distortions with the US consumer being the consumer of last resort>

Bingo! And Mish beware my wife and I are done living beyond our means and are paying off our cards within 30 days. <g> So bring on the recession I am done spending.

Of course the caveat is, is that we have the money to cover. LOL.
Tom



To: mishedlo who wrote (10117)3/14/2004 7:32:10 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 110194
 
>>I do not fully understand all of the long term consequences of that unleashing of China demand <<

Faber says buy oil service now -- growth in oil consumption there is getting ready to take off -- not inconsistent with what appeared in the Simmons article you posted ...



To: mishedlo who wrote (10117)3/15/2004 8:38:45 AM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 110194
 
Here's how China plans on slowing things down: basically adding to the Train Wreck, by adding even more input costs (removing subsidies and credit, and adding regulatory costs). That'll work in spades to support and enhance my theory <g>.

China takes steps to slow national steelmaking expansion

3/12/2004
Purchasing.com

The Chinese government is taking strict measures to slow the expansion in steel production that has tightened supply and boosted prices for scrap and other raw materials worldwide, reports the People’s Daily newspaper (http://english.peopledaily.com.cn). Basically, China’s State Development and Reform Commission (SDRC) this week stopped approving new iron and steel construction by readjusting requirements on technology, energy consumption, safety and quality. The SDRC also is cooperating with the banking sector to tighten credit requirements for steel-expansion projects at existing plants. The newspaper reports that banks will no longer provide loans for those projects that do not meet industrial policy or market-need requirements. China produced 220 million metric tons of steel in 2003, up 15.4% from 2002, according to the China Iron and Steel Association, which says the nation consumed 250 million metric tons. It is estimated that by the end of 2005, China's annual steel output will reach 330 million metric tons, which would be enough to meet the nation’s projected market demand of 2010. "This indicates that there is an over-heating in investment in the steel industry," a SRDC spokesman tells the Beijing-based national newspaper. The paper reports: “The SDRC has joined hands with relevant authorities to tighten examination and approval of land use of steel plants. The government will not approve the land development and construction of steel projects that are not in line with the industrial policy and development plan.” Also, the government will no longer give tax rebates to imports of equipment for the construction of unapproved steel projects. And, the central government is urging local governments to abolish electricity price discounts. The Chinese government has ordered local governments to conduct a survey of regional steel plants to check whether laws have been violated in environment protection, land use and energy consumption. In 2002, China's fixed assets investment in steel industry stood at 70.4 billion yuan ($8.5 billion), surging 45.9%. In 2003, the figure rose to 133.2 billion yuan ($16.1 billion), up 89.2% from 2002.