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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (20355)	3/15/2004 9:02:20 PM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 81762

Latest report from Marc Faber ameinfo.com >>>Correction, or resumption of a major downtrend? ..... equity markets may be forming a significant top between now and April. Tops tend to coincide with very high bullish sentiment and that is where we are today ...the recent strength in bond prices is interesting. Seemingly, the bond market isn't entirely convinced by the 'strong economy' statements by the US policy makers nor by the published glowing economic statistics. Still, what might unsettle the bond market is US dollar strength and rising inflation rates due to soaring energy prices. With respect to the strength in the bond market, I suspect that declining interest rates are an indication that the consumer has very little spending power left. Employment gains are minimal and real incomes are declining as prices are rising far more than what the government's statistician are publishing. Bill King, the author of the excellent and highly recommended daily 'King Report' (kingreport@ramkingsec.com) recently also took the CPI figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics apart and concluded that they grossly understate the rise in prices in the US. At the same time, not all is well in Asia, either. Whereas, so far, the bird flu outbreak has had a very limited economic impact, it nevertheless gave investors a reason to sell and led to a sharp correction in a large number of stocks. In addition, we should be well aware that it is likely that the bird flu will one day mutate and will then be able to jump from human to human, which could lead to a pandemic of major proportions and have a devastating impact on the Asian and world economies. I would not rule out another oil crisis should as a result of some political upheaval in the Middle East supplies be interrupted. Moreover, whereas the NASDAQ seems pricey, to put it mildly, oil companies command very undemanding valuations. In sum, rising energy prices will lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates. A stronger dollar may hurt some big players who are short dollars and lead to less buying of US treasuries by Asian central banks and so depress the bond market. <<<