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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (2033)	3/14/2004 11:33:48 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Watling adds that bond yields could easily reach 6 per cent in the current cycle. He says that between one and three percentage points is the historical range for real bond yields and that inflation could easily reach 3 per cent as the economy expands. That would involve heavy losses for investors, given that 10-year bond yields are now below 4 per cent. The bond markets could be very vulnerable to a change in sentiment. According to Jes Black, currency analyst at MG Group, speculative long bets in the five-year Treasury note rose to a record of 250,000 contracts in the last week of February. What a crock of crap. cftc.gov Short interest on treasuries by small specs (non-reportables) seem quite high. Look at the 10 yr. By large specs it is neutral, and we all know the reasons FNM (commercial) is where it is. Bond yields could EASILY reach 6%?! I think he is nuts. The unexpected is lower rates and a cut from the FED. Looking ahead that is the UNEXPECTED play, everyone expects rates to be headed higher, not lower. Mish