Nation Wants New Direction in ABC Poll:
March 8 — Bush vs. Kerry starts with an edge to John Kerry on issues and emotions alike — but hardly an unstoppable one. Some of President Bush's ratings have stabilized, some of his advantages are strong and his support is firmer than his less-known challenger's.
As much as anything, this ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll shows the 2004 general election campaign beginning much as the last one ended: with a sharply divided nation, split evenly on Bush's overall performance since his razor-thin electoral college victory.
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS Intersearch.
Beneath the divisions, though, are serious challenges for Bush. Fifty-seven percent of Americans say it's time for a "new direction" in the nation's leadership, fewer than at this point in his father's presidency but a majority nonetheless. Anger with his administration has risen, and now exceeds enthusiasm. His personal popularity more closely resembles a re-election loser's (his father's) than a winner's (Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan's).
As with Bush's father, much of the discontent pertains to the economy: It's the public's single most important election issue by a sizable margin, and 59 percent — a new high for this president — disapprove of the way he's handled it.
Disapproval of Bush's work on the federal deficit and Social Security also has reached new highs. Kerry leads him in trust to handle these issues and others, including health insurance, education, prescription drugs and taxes. Bush leads in trust to handle just one of a dozen issues, but a big one — the war on terrorism, the wellspring of his support.
Empathy and emotion carry hazards for Bush as well. Americans by a 41-point margin, 67 percent to 26 percent, think he cares more about protecting the interests of large business corporations than ordinary working people; the figures are essentially reversed for Kerry. Fifty-seven percent think Bush doesn't understand the problems of people like them; 58 percent think Kerry does. And in the broadest gap, 51 percent don't think Bush is tolerant of different points of view; 73 percent think Kerry is.
And there's been a gradual shift in emotional balance: By an eight-point margin, more Americans are now "angry" with the administration than "enthusiastic" about it, 22 percent to 14 percent. (The overall view is another even split — 49 percent enthusiastic or satisfied; 51 percent dissatisfied or angry.)
Election Year Favorability Ratings
Favorable Unfavorable
George W. Bush, 3/04 47% 46
Clinton, 6/96 56 38
George H.W. Bush, 3/92 50 47
Reagan, 1/84 54 38
For his part, Bush maintains broad approval for fighting terrorism; equally so for protecting the public's "rights and freedoms" (though he has no edge over Kerry in trust to handle the latter). And most Americans, 56 percent, now say the United States is "winning the war on terrorism," up from 47 percent in fall 2002.
At 50 percent, Bush's overall job approval rating has stabilized at an even split; while relatively weak rating, it hasn't fallen further. Similarly, the public now divides evenly on whether Bush has united or divided the country. Fifty-four percent now rate Bush as "honest and trustworthy," also stabilized. And 63 percent call him a strong leader.
Feelings Toward Bush’s Policies
Now December
Enthusiastic 14% 16
Satisfied 35 41
Dissatisfied 28 29
Angry 22 12
Context
All these results need to be evaluated in the context of the campaign. They come just at the end of the Democratic primaries, a period of intensive focus on Kerry's victories and the Democrats' criticisms of Bush — criticisms to which the president has just begun to respond.
This kind of focus can shift loyalties at the margins, which is where U.S. elections tend to be won or lost. Compared to recent averages, Americans currently are a bit more apt to identify themselves as Democrats, a bit less likely to say they're Republicans. A question for the future is whether this holds, or settles back as the president counterattacks.
Elections with incumbents tend first to be about the incumbent. As such, Kerry's support is much more negative than affirmative; among people who back him for president, 61 percent say they more oppose Bush than support Kerry. Bush's support, by contrast, is much more affirmative than negative. Here the question for Kerry is whether he can meet hopes and expectations as the better alternative; for Bush, it's whether he can drive up doubts about Kerry while shoring up his own credentials.
Strength of support tells a similar story: Eight in 10 Bush supporters back him strongly, compared to six in 10 of Kerry's.
Bush’s Approval Ratings
War on Terrorism 63%
Protecting Rights 61
Overall Job 50
Taxes 50
Education 50
Iraq 46
Same-Sex Marriage 44
Creating Jobs 43
Perscription Drugs 41
The Economy 39
Social Security 38
Health Insurance 32
Budget Deficit 30
On the battleground of ideology the reputed Massachusetts liberal fares no worse than the self-declared Texas conservative. A third of Americans say Kerry is "too liberal" for them, but the same number say Bush is "too conservative." Bush surely will try to paint Kerry as too liberal, not least because conservatives outnumber liberals (by 10 percentage points among registered voters in this poll).
One place Kerry looks reasonably secure is with his base: Eighty-eight percent of leaned Democrats say they're satisfied with him as the nominee, and nearly nine in 10 support him in a head-to-head matchup against Bush.
Nader
Then there's the question of Ralph Nader, seen by some Democrats as the spoiler in 2000. (Others can argue that Pat Buchanan almost spoiled it for Bush.) Nader does make it a somewhat closer race, assuming he's on the ballot in all 50 states: Head to head, in a two-way matchup Kerry has 53 percent support among registered voters, Bush 44 percent. Add Nader and it's 48 percent-44 percent-3 percent.
Much here remains to sort itself out, including how broadly and how strongly Nader campaigns and how many state ballots he makes. In the two-way Bush-Kerry matchup, very few registered voters — fewer than half a percent — volunteer Nader's name. (One approach, given the uncertainties, is to average the results with and without Nader; that produces a Kerry-Bush-Nader matchup of 51 percent-44 percent-2 percent among registered voters.)
Veep
Another shoe to fall involves Kerry's choice of a vice-presidential nominee. This usually influences few votes — classically it helps in the v.p. nominee's home state alone — but more atmospherically it can send a message to voters of use in evaluating where the presidential nominee stands and how he thinks.
In Bush's case, Dick Cheney is not looking like much help. On one hand, 56 percent think Bush should keep Cheney on the ticket. On the other, personally, more Americans view Cheney unfavorably than favorably, by 43 percent to 35 percent — never a comfortable position for a public figure.
Economy
Of all the issues before the public, it's hardest to overstate the importance of the economy. Slightly more now say it's getting better than getting worse, a hopeful sign for the administration. But 60 percent say it's in bad shape, and 43 percent say most Americans have gotten worse off financially since Bush took office; only 17 percent say most are better off. And as noted, Bush's approval rating on the economy is at a career low.
It was economic discontent that did in Bush's father in 1992, and today Bush handily wins people who rate the economy positively — but loses those who rate it negatively. Moreover, an ABCNEWS analysis of 52 years of data from the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment finds that in election years in which confidence was better than its long-term average, incumbent presidents seeking re-election won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton). In years in which confidence was below average, incumbents lost (Ford, Carter and George H.W. Bush).
Confidence currently is above its long-term average in Michigan data — but it fell from 16 points above average in January to six points above average in February.
Consumer Confidence in Incumbent Election Years Compared to 1952-2003 Average
(Univ. of Michigan confidence data)
1976/ Ford -2
1980 Carter -24
1992 Bush -11
1956 Eisenhower 11
1964 Johnson 11
1972 Nixon 4
1984 Reagan 9
1996 Clinton 5
Minorities
Bush's overall approval rating is much better among whites than among minorities, particularly blacks — 56 percent among whites, 48 percent among Hispanics, just 14 percent among blacks. That middling rating from Hispanics suggests why Bush (who met this weekend with Mexican President Vicente Fox) is trying to win support in this group. However, in the general election matchup Kerry wins 65 percent of Hispanics, about the usual level of Hispanic support for Democratic presidential candidates.
Iraq
Lastly, on Iraq, where Governing Council members today signed a constitution, this poll finds a mixed report for U.S. policy. On one hand, the public by 52 percent to 44 percent now says the war was worth fighting, compared to 48 percent to 50 percent last month.
But 53 percent don't think the administration has a clear plan how to proceed there; as many disapprove of Bush's handling of the situation. While 57 percent think the war has contributed to long-term U.S. security, fewer — 29 percent — think it's contributed "a great deal." And most, 55 percent, continue to think the administration intentionally exaggerated its prewar evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 4-7 among a random national sample of 1,202 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was conducted by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. |
