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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (25355)	3/15/2004 9:02:26 AM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 60323

thanks.. i was thinking of larger corp. like ge and xon should have thought more about it with sndk

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (25355)	3/15/2004 9:05:17 AM
From: Pam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

This is for everyone following SNDK- Did anyone had a chance to look at SNDK's latest 10-K filings? I quickly browsed through it and my initial reading is that Sandisk is leaving the option open to delay or even cancel the new fab plant. They (Sandisk/Toshiba) will probably have to make a decision soon based on how much capacity, as they see, will come online from competition in the coming months else there will be too much capacity which will hurt everyone. Also, it seems that SNDK/Tohiba are going to get online substantial amounts of 200mm wafers by this yearend that should help keep margins high. The revenue estimates out there are assuming the demand will be strong for Flash memory. My feeling is Flash demand will definitely grow but if there are kinks in the linear growth that one models it could make the stock volatile. The market dynamics are too complex. As an example, SNDK is estimatiing 150% growth in bits shipped, this means we get revs of 1.08B2.50=2.7B. Now if we adjust this number for a 40% ASP decline we get 1.62B (2.7B0.60) and if we get 50% decline in ASP with the looming competition, we get 1.35B. In the latter scenario, things could get ugly at the bottomline. I encourage everyone to look at the 10-K, there are a lot of things I would like to discuss with all interested in SNDK. -Pam