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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (2060)3/15/2004 10:27:15 AM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
I don't think that one is really all that important -- it is harder for there to be long-lasting excess capacity in trucking, IMO. Just the nature of the beast.

Hard to say how much excess capacity there is in trucking, but I am sure there is excess -- otherwise, why would the fellow be thinking of parking his truck??

The idea that farmers won't be able to find transport to their markets is rather funny ... but, IMO, it doesn't stem from a real capacity constraint.



To: russwinter who wrote (2060)3/15/2004 10:31:42 AM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 116555
 
I'll concede your larger pt to some extent -- prices for freight hauling will have to rise in order that some truckers can make a decent profit. Ususally what happens in these instances is "independents" get squeezed out ...

It will show up in foodstuffs -- but I have agreed that prices for energy and foodstuffs would rise relative to other stuff. On the subpoint -- no, I do not think this will impact the prices of everything that is shiped by truck -- everyone does have to have food. Everyone doesn't necessarily need a new sofa ...



To: russwinter who wrote (2060)3/15/2004 10:48:58 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
If goods are not being delivered because of fuel, and there is no copper left at any price, it would follow that goods needing copper will not be made and that would seem to me that lots of people would lose their jobs.

Same story with fuel and any other commodities. You keep saying there will not be any of this stuff at any price. Sounds deflationary to me. No goods will be made and no one will have a job.

You miss the obvious implications of some of your theory.

Mish