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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 11:02:57 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

A falling stock market is a deflationary thing IMO. This "reflation" looks likes its getting more than a bit long in the tooth. Mish

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 11:07:19 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China to issue 60 bln yuan bank bills tomorrow to soak up excess liquidity Monday, March 15, 2004 9:21:05 AM BEIJING (AFX-ASIA) - The People's Bank of China will issue 60 bln yuan in bank bills tomorrow -- the first time the central bank is offering 60 bln yuan of the bills for two consecutive weeks -- in a bid to soak up excess liquidity in the banking system. The issue size will equal the record high reached twice earlier -- on August 19 last year and last week -- since the central bank adopted weekly open market operations last Spring. The central bank said in a statement that it will offer 10 bln yuan in three-month bills, 20 bln yuan of six-month bills and 30 bln yuan of one-year bills, showing the bank's preference for longer-term bills. China's central bank was forced to issue large quantities of bank bills to dry up the excessive liquidity in the banking system stemming from massive foreign capital inflows amid hopes for the yuan's revaluation. The move was aimed at preventing the excessive liquidity flowing into the economy and contribute to its overheating. China's broad measure of money supply M2 was up 19.4 pct year-on-year at 22.7 trln yuan at the end of February, higher than the target of 17 pct growth rate for 2004 set by the government. China's outstanding loans at the end of February jumped 21.3 pct compared to a year earlier. New loans in January and February were 509.2 bln yuan, 55.3 bln higher than the same period last year and reversing the decline in the previous five months. The rapid credit growth has fueled market speculation that the central bank may increase the required deposit reserve ratio of banks as early as May if the current strategy of soaking up liquidity through massive issue of central bank bills proves insufficient to cool down credit growth. Last year, the central bank announced a hike in reserve requirements for banks on August 23, just four days after it issued the all-time high of 60 bln yuan in central bank bills. fxstreet.com

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 11:19:11 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Italy Jan industrial output down 2.8 pct yr-on-yr Monday, March 15, 2004 9:10:15 AM ROME (AFX) - Industrial production fell 2.8 pct year-on-year, the statistics bureau ISTAT said. On a daily average, industrial output rose 0.3 pct in January from a year earlier, ISTAT said, adding that there were 20 working days against 21 in Jan 2003. On an seasonally adjusted basis, production fell 0.2 pct in January from December.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 11:21:25 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China central bank may adjust rates if CPI growth goes above 3 pct - report Sunday, March 14, 2004 11:57:36 PM BEIJING (AFX-ASIA) - The People's Bank of China (PBoC), the country's central bank, may adjust interest rates on reserves, savings accounts and loans in the event of CPI growth of over 3 pct, the 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing an unidentified central bank researcher. The rate adjustment comes as part of a draft PBoC emergency plan to cope with accelerating inflation, the official said. The plan calls for money supply adjustments via open market operations whenever CPI is under the 3 pct cap. When CPI growth runs higher than 3 pct, the central bank will adopt more drastic monetary policy measures, including rate adjustments, the report said. The central bank is likely to submit its emergency plan to the State Council in the second quarter, pending the outcome of its open market operations on CPI, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. CPI in February rose 2.1 pct year-on-year, driven by rising grain prices. It was down 0.2 pct from January, the first month-on-month fall since July, indicating that inflationary pressures on the economy may be starting to ease. Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, said last week that the bank will not increase interest rates this month because CPI growth still does not merit a rate hike. "But we will keep a close watch on the effects of the current and previous monetary policy (measures). Based upon that, we will decide on monetary policy for next month and beyond." The PBoC's recent open market operations include the issue of a record high 60 bln yuan in bank bills on March 9 and another 50 bln on March 2. But analysts said the impact from open market operations has weakened as previously-issued bank bills come due. The central bank set this year's money supply growth target at 17 pct, 2.6 percentage points lower than the previous year's. fxstreet.com

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 11:24:37 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

China demand/output has led to 'crazy situation' on steel market - Arcelor CEO BRUSSELS (AFX) - A surge in Chinese consumption and production has created "a crazy situation" on the world steel market, European steel group Arcelor's chief executive officer Guy Dolle said. "There is not enough steel available to satisfy the demand," Dolle told journalists here Friday. "We don't have enough coke, enough iron ore" to meet the demand, he said. "We haven't seen as rapid a development in the last 30 years," Dolle added. He attributed what he called "a crazy situation" on the global market to China's appetite for steel. The current circumstances are nonetheless of no great help to producers, he said. "Prices are good but margins are not necessarily good." The price of coke has quadrupled in the last 15 years while that of scrap iron has doubled in a year, Dolle said, noting however that in Europe part of the price hikes have been neutralized by the strength of the euro. "The problem is knowing if we are capable of increasing prices quicker than costs," he said. Dolle added that he is "a little more optimistic" than he was a month ago about Arcelor's results this year, particularly in the second and third quarters. fxstreet.com

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 11:33:32 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

One in 73 US households declared bankruptcy in '03 Friday March 12, 5:13 pm ET WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) - One out of every 73 U.S. households filed for bankruptcy last year, a record high, despite historically low interest rates, the American Bankruptcy Institute said on Friday. The institute said Utah faced the highest per-household bankruptcy rate -- one out of every 47 -- followed closely by Tennessee, Georgia and Nevada. Alaska had the lowest rate last year, just one filing for every 189 households. "Despite enjoying the sustained benefit of low interest rates, growing numbers of U.S. consumers are facing difficulty in meeting their monthly obligations," ABI Executive Director Samuel Gerdano said. "Ironically, these same consumers are being relied upon to continue spending to keep the economy growing," he added. U.S. households had $10.4 trillion in debt outstanding at the end of last year.

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 11:58:19 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Saville news.goldseek.com

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 1:23:36 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

double tops are notoriously bad patterns to short. If I had a 100 dollars for every double top I've shorted that wound up getting me stopped out ... odds are that will move higher, IMO ...

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 1:26:36 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I like this chart better bigcharts.marketwatch.com that retrace looks like it is hitting major support

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2071)	3/15/2004 1:49:46 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Homeownership in a Bubble: The Fast Path to Poverty? By Dean Baker and Simone Baribeau August 13, 2003 Excerpt: While homeownership may be indeed be desirable in normal times, it is not clear that encouraging moderate income families to buy homes at present is a good strategy. There is good reason to believe that the nation is experiencing a housing bubble very similar to the stock bubble of the late nineties. Nationwide, the rise in home prices has exceeded the overall rate of inflation by more than 30 percentage points since 1995. This sort of run-up in home prices has no precedent in the post-war period. No economist has been able to put forward a plausible explanation for such a sudden run-up in home prices, apart from a speculative bubble. The Link: cepr.net