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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (34588)	3/15/2004 12:08:33 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793559

THE NOTE - President Bush is NOT the underdog in this race, and it is next to impossible to imagine him ever declaring himself to be. But that means that John Kerry is not every day in every way being held to the same level of accountability as the incumbent. However, it would do us all a bit of good to fully shake off the lingering effects of the Democratic nomination season and remind ourselves that it is still more likely than not that George W. Bush will emerge victorious in November. (NOTE TO THE DENSE AND SKIMMING: THIS IS OUR MONEY GRAPH!!) First and foremost the Republican electoral college advantage places the president in a better pole position than Sen. Kerry. If, for the purposes of this exercise, you remove the 17 battleground states and add up the electoral votes from the states considered safe for each party, Republicans have a 190 to 168 advantage over the Democrats and begin the battle for the battlegrounds only 80 electoral votes shy of the promised land. Sen. Kerry is still operating in a political environment where he has yet to be battle tested as a presidential candidate beyond the friendly confines of a nomination fight. (Yes, Professor Brinkley, we realize he was quite tested in the Mekong Delta, but we're talking about running for president here.) Kerry still has a great distance to travel before he passes the "sit and have a beer/hang" test that the American people and the press will undoubtedly continue to administer. And although the Kerry camp is quite confident in their ability to raise and spend $80 million by the time the convention rolls around, the president's $200 (approximately) million war chest will likely allow voters to come in contact with the Bush-Cheney message of "steady leadership" more often than with John Kerry's call for change. The concept of inertia is instructive here too. To use Bill Clinton's job interview metaphor, it is far easier for a voter to come to the conclusion that the president's contract should be renewed than it is to decide to both fire the president and hire Sen. Kerry. As history demonstrates (and as you no doubt saw on The Note segment of "This Week with George Stephanopoulos") the power of incumbency is impressive. Twenty-eight presidents have run for reelection with the trappings of the office surrounding them. By a ratio of nearly 2-to-1, the American people have given those presidents the opportunity to continue their service (18 to 10). There is no doubt that the country is closely divided and the President's trajectory is of great concern to his supporters and seen as a great opportunity for his detractors, but it is important to take a step back and remember just how tough a climb John Kerry has ahead of him. And while the President should continue to be held accountable for what HE says, it's time to start holding John Kerry plenty accountable also.

To: Lane3 who wrote (34588)	3/15/2004 12:23:45 PM
From: Michelino	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793559

Let the official record be annotated: "I still have four minutes to retract that post, tell me the truth, am I in any danger?", he blurted sardonically and then chuckled "BRING IT ON" but then thought, "who really has the time, not I" and finally made a mental note to come back in September when he and the others can wage jihad, holy war and freedom fighting, both "figuratively" and via the use of indecently mixed metaphors. All to win over the heart and mind of the single undecided voter left at that time : the prolific cut-and-paster "LindyBill" who has been "dancing around" and avoiding declaring his allegiance since the day he started this thread...if anyone is still reading and believing this...I'm taking a break