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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (2111)	3/15/2004 4:35:15 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 116555

l-p, excellent piece. Thanks!

To: gregor_us who wrote (2111)	3/15/2004 5:53:04 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 116555

Cant we all just get along????ggg

To: gregor_us who wrote (2111)	3/15/2004 6:25:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Heinz on Oil Date: Mon Mar 15 2004 14:52 trotsky (P.Yorkie) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Bush got his advance warning from Matt Simmons...i don't believe that the PTB are unaware of how explosive the oil situation is fast becoming. of course, offcially, everything's just fine...the fact that official estimates of future oil supply/demand rely on Saudi Arabia DOUBLING its output from current peak levels should give everyone pause though...since it seems more likely that Saudi output will be cut in half over the next 20 years. imo a lot of current politics can be explained by the dire outlook for oil depletion. in that light , many things that make no sense superficially, suddenly do make sense. recent 'oil war' moves: occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan; establishment of bases in Uzbekistan and Kirghistan; deposing Shewardnadse in Georgia; jailing Khodorkowski and freezing his Yukos holdings; sacking the entire Russian government; Japan-Iran field development deal; China buying stakes in Central Asian and West African producers and haggling with Russia over the pipeline that Japan also wants; and so on - i.e., the energy war ( or WW3, as it may become known at a later stage ) has already begun, currently still at the low-level, simmering conflict stage. Date: Mon Mar 15 2004 13:58 trotsky (crude oil) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved if crude oil manages to breach the over 20 year old resistance at $40/bbl., all hell will break loose. note that recent admissions from Saudi Aramco regarding the state of Ghawar's remaining reserves are not exactly comforting, to put it mildly. actually, they're downright alarming. the era of cheap oil may already be over...and if so, then the 'dark ages' have unequivocally begun. on a future map of history, industrialized civilization may turn out to have been nothing but a brief, milli-second blip. admittedly that may be too optimistic an outlook...there may not even BE future maps of history....we could be in for a Roman Empire type of bear market that goes all the way to zero... : )