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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (40846)	3/15/2004 9:08:10 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70330

I can see the author's point about hidden inflation in certain segments. I would also add that the increase in housing prices is generating the same feeling of wealth that stocks did in 2000 and as a result consumer are borrowing againsts their equity to finance their current standard of living. If there is a significant correction in the stocks market and this reflects an overall weakness in the US economy then I am not so sure I buy his call on oil though. I had forgotten that I read an article that stated that China was absorbing all the slack that would traditional be generated during an economic down turn in the Western Economies. I am not sure they could absorb that much that oil that they would be the key driver to anything more that modest inflation overall. I certainly down see anything to drive more than a 2 or 3 percentage point increase in the interest rates. Given that the government is down to lowering interest rates as the only means of stimulating the economy, his scenario would only make sense if the government goes back to a Reganomics form of inflationary goverment spending to help the economy recover. I don't think any government is willing to do that. Too many of the current group of politicans lived though the stagflation of the 70's. There is just not the stomach for those kind of cripple interest rates. That is not to say oil companies will not do well. The OPEC countires have done a great job of keeping the prices artifical high and close to $30 a barrel level. At that level everyone is still making money hand over fist.

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (40846)	3/18/2004 3:30:09 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70330

08:16 ADPT tgt cut to $9.50 from $11.50 at UBS (8.75 ) UBS lowering price tgt on Adaptec to $9.50 from $11.50 as they believe that the opportunity for iSCSI host bus adapters is pushed out to 1H06 compared to 2H05 previously. According to the firm, the key catalyst for Adaptec's stock remains future sales of the co's iSCSI host bus adapters but newly announced competitive products, based on "fiber channel" technology, lead them to believe the opportunity will be pushed out. Emulex, which was previously offering "fiber channel" host bus adapters at a price of about $1,000, or 2x the cost of a comparable iSCSI host bus adapter has announced plans to begin shipments of a new LP101 fiber channel host bus adapter with a street price in the range of only about $500 which is basically in line with Adaptec's iSCSI product.