'WCDMA to dominate world's 3G telephony'
koreaherald.co.kr
BUSAN - After a slower-than-expected roll out, wideband CDMA, or WCDMA, is back on track to prevail as the world's third-generation mobile telephony standard, according to the chairman of the platform's largest advocate group.
"The number of WCDMA users worldwide is reaching over 8 million, equivalent to the number of CDMA2000 1x EV-DO users that is about 8 to 9 million. We expect the number of WCDMA customers to increase to 12 million to 15 million by the end of the year," Jean-Pierre Bienaime, chairman of the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System Forum, told the Korea Herald on Thursday.
The Forum is an international body of 130 mobile equipment and operator companies promoting the global uptake of WCDMA services.
"Our colleagues are cautious in giving out long-term expectations, but we believe WCDMA will take 90 percent of the world's third-generation market eventually, as GSM platforms currently control more than 70 percent of the world's digital wireless market," he added.
Bieniame was elected as chairman of the forum in January 2003. He is in Busan to address a discussion panel at the ITU Asia convention at the southern port city's BEXCO center.
The 52-year-old Frenchman has led a distinguished career in telecommunications since joining France Telecom in 1979. Bienaime is currently the group technical support director of France Telecom's mobile affiliate, Orange, a post he has held since 2000.
The UMTS Forum was established in 1996 and is joined by international mobile industry and tech heavyweights such as Nokia, Siemens, Vodafone, Qualcomm and Huawei, among others. Korean electronics makers Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Inc. and mobile operators SK Telecom Co. and KT Freetel Co. are also members of the group.
WCDMA is a third-generation mobile telephony standard based on the second-generation global system for mobile communications (GSM) platform, currently used in 70 percent of the world's mobile markets.
The 3G infrastructure allows a higher data-transmission capacity than earlier networks such as 2G or 2.5G, giving users mobile Internet access, video streaming and datacasting on top of the traditional voice communication.
The adoption of 3G technology has been the most significant recent attempt by mobile-phone operators worldwide to maintain growth in a maturing industry.
WCDMA, the sole 3G standard in Europe, got off to a slow start there after licenses were given out starting in 2000.
Most European operators groaned under the heavy spending needed to acquire the licenses. And the large size of the GSM community made it hard for companies to agree upon compatible standards in transmissions and equipment. Most European operators ended up delaying the introduction of services from 2002 to 2004.
WCDMA's early blunders are in clear contrast with the success its 3G rival platform, CDMA2000 1x EV-DO, an extension of previous code division multiple access networks, which now runs in Korea, Japan, Brazil and the United States, since its introduction in 2001.
However, Bienaime says this year will be the starting point of global acceleration for WCDMA. He says more than 120 WCDMA licenses have been awarded in 40 countries, and 43 of those networks in 22 countries are up and running. The number of operating networks is expected reach 70 by the end of the year.
Bienaime also believes the European market is finally ready to provide success models for WCDMA to the rest of the world. At present, about 17 to 18 percent of the revenue for European operators is generated by non-voice data, with the rates particularly high in Britain.
"It wouldn't be appropriate to say WCDMA services were delayed. It was just that companies needed time to support to costs of the licenses and develop equipment applications for the complex new technology."
"European customers already developed a taste for 'non-voice' data, through 2.5-generation systems based on GPRS technology, which is an evolutionary stepping stone toward WCDMA. This resulted in a steady increase in average revenue per user over the past few years," he added.
The UMTS Forum is focusing its efforts to expand WCDMA in up-and-coming telecommunications markets such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. Third-generation licensing is planned in Brazil and Russia next year.
Bienaime is confident that WCDMA will eventually overcome its disastrous start in Korea, where mobile operators SK Telecom and KT Freetel have lured only about 1,300 customers during a soft-launch period that started last December. In contrast, there are more than 30 million customers registered for 2.5G CDMA2000 1x and CDMA2000 1x EV-DO services.
"Through its 'IT839' strategy, Korea made clear its initiatives to develop WCDMA as a future growth engine. The Korean market is a critical testbed toward the connection of second and 2.5-generation CDMA services and WCDMA," said Bienaime.
"There is no reason for Korean mobile-phone operators to limit themselves to the limited CDMA community in the future."
Bienaime denied the validity of the beliefs that emerging competitive technologies, such as portable wireless broadband access, could render 3G mobile telephony irrelevant.
The Korean government is promoting WiBro (wireless broadband), an Internet protocol-based technology designed to provide high-speed Internet access at a maximum speed of 1Mbps to receiver devices such as mobile phones even when the user is moving at speeds up to 70 kilometers per hour.
The government aims for WiBro commercialization by 2006 and hopes to generate 4 trillion won from services with more than 9 million customers by 2011. Some analysts believe the success of WiBro will make the slow start of WCDMA irrelevant.
"While portable Internet technologies such as WiMAX extends broadband wireless access coverage to metropolitan networks, third-generation mobile telephony gives full mobility with wide-area coverage, integral security, roaming and full integration with billing systems.
It would be hard for WiMAX to stand alone without a reliable third-generation market," said Bienaime.
"Wireless LAN and WiMAX complement rather than compete with third-generation mobile technology."
(thkim@heraldm.com)
By Kim Tong-hyung |
