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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (184804)	3/15/2004 7:57:51 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573832

re: The term "Dead end" was used. It's a "dead end" policy. Once production growth starts trailing consumption growth, things will break very bad wrt price. If you understood anything about commodity prices, you would get a hint that this will not be a gradual, let's see what we can do in the next 30 years, problem. That's why we started the oil wars. re: The price goes up until supply and demand balance. And that balance will be achieved by a recession at best, more likely a depression. On the other hand, we could have conservation, alternative energy programs, and incentives to build new businesses (and jobs). We could be proactive. John

To: TimF who wrote (184804)	3/15/2004 9:37:18 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 1573832

What was said is that oil production will peak some time in the future, and not that it was going to dead end. The term "Dead end" was used. I think we are interpreting differently what JF was saying. By "dead end", I thought he meant we were traveling in a direction that would not make things better in the future and not that production would stop suddenly. Secondly, you inferred that when the world's production peaks, it will be no worse than when US production peaked. Not at all. I didn't say the situation would be the same in terms of how bad it was. I said the situation would be the same in the sense that there will not be a huge sudden drop off in production after the peak. Specifically I said that there would be no "dead end" in world production, just like there was no "dead end" in US production. There will be a difference though when oil production peaks for the world rather than the US. Prices will skyrocket at that point even if they have been steadily rising for years. What does the world do when the world's production peaks and demand remains high? The price goes up until supply and demand balance. If price controls are attempted then there will be real shortages (at least to the extent that the controls can be enforced and our not undermined by those who seek to evade them), but if the price is allowed to float freely then demand will be contained by the rising price and alternate sources of energy will come online now that the price is high enough to support those alternate sources. I believe the scenario is a dangerous one and every attempt should be made to avoid it. ted