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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary105 who wrote (68960)	3/16/2004 6:53:53 AM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

My coin only has 2 sides to it!

To: Gary105 who wrote (68960)	3/16/2004 8:54:25 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

I wasn't trying to blow you away with a flip answer... I just had not done my due diligence yet and you seemed interested in an immediate answer... so the flip of the coin would have been just as good as anything I could have given you at the moment. Now that I have had a chance to look at things... my response would be much different although no guarantee it would be any better than the flip of a coin: Before giving you my answer, let me share what I am looking at: - I look at the disk drives ($DDX) to get a sense of where things are headed from the micro side of the markets... (usually a leading indicator of the general markets) and for the first time since this ($DDX) move up began in the fall of 2002, the long term MA is moving down. In fact, the 144 ema vs 200 sma is about to cross into negative territory, another symptom of a major market reversal... it is usually a lagging indicator! - The consumer, compared to commodities, is playing a losing battle against the supposedly non-existent inflation! For example, I have noticed a 50% increase in the price of eggs in the past 3-4 months... not just a temporary thing but week after week of much higher costs. - $VXN shows a double top breakout and $VIX a triple top breakout in my P&F charts. - my "GURU" series of indicators are in sell-off mode. Sentiment, as it has been reported many times on this thread by others, has been at an all time high... really a bummer in terms of any further extension of a move up. The biggest fly in the ointment here is that we have odd-lot short sales at very high levels and getting higher which, as a counter-indicator, says the markets could well be going higher from a short term (weekly?) perspective. If things get much worse on the downside, the foreign buyers could readily become sellers which would latch up the market in sell mode. Continued weakness in the dollar almost guarantees that will happen! Since my forecasts typically lead the markets... (remember, I suggested the peak might come in late January or early February) to allow for that, I would have to pick: 5. Weak bounce, flounder, 200 D MA flatten, then pierce through and begin downtrend That may well set us up for a BK in the October 2004 timeframe? All the caveats apply!!!