To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (7688 ) 3/16/2004 2:25:45 PM From: ChinuSFO Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 81568 Poll finds pessimism about U.S. direction By Susan Page and Richard Benedetto, USA TODAY WASHINGTON — Americans are increasingly gloomy about the state of the economy and the direction of the country, a Gallup Poll has found. That state of mind is a warning flag for President Bush as his re-election campaign begins in earnest. (Related item: Poll results) In the poll, 60% said they were dissatisfied with "the way things are going in the United States at this time." Except for a survey two weeks before the invasion of Iraq a year ago, that is the most negative reading since 1996. The question about the general direction of the country is one of the fundamental judgments voters make in deciding whether to support a president for re-election. That makes the public's pessimism, if it persists, a serious problem for the Bush campaign. "The reality is that when people are dissatisfied with the country's direction, they tend to vote for change, and when they vote for change, they tend to vote out incumbents," says Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster and adviser to the likely Democratic candidate, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Bush's job-approval rating was a respectable 50%, however, which has been a sort of dividing line for presidents seeking re-election. Since 1948, no president who maintained an average job-approval rating of 50% or better in his re-election year has lost a bid for a second term. No president with a rating below 50% has won. "You have to look at dissatisfaction in the context of job approval, which is still 50%," says Matthew Dowd, Bush's pollster and senior strategist. "They could be dissatisfied about a lot of things, but not necessarily dissatisfied about the president." Concern about the economy appears to be driving down public satisfaction. Asked to identify the most important problem facing the country, the top two responses were the economy in general (21 percent) and jobs in particular (19 percent). They ranked far above fears about war, including the conflict with Iraq, at 11%. Concern was rising, though at single digits, about the federal budget deficit and gas prices. Most of the survey had been completed before the terrorist bombings in Madrid on Thursday. "The economy has bogged down, and Iraq has bogged down," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. If job growth booms or Osama bin Laden is captured, the mood could turn around, she says. "But I think we're at a tipping point now, and it will be a real battle to see which way the voters tip." The mood of the country was bright at the beginning of the year. By 55 percent-43 percent, those surveyed said they were satisfied. Since then, optimism about the economy has soured. In January, by more than 2-to-1, the public said economic conditions were getting better. Now, by 47 percent-44 percent, they say economic conditions are getting worse. The decline in optimism about the country's direction runs across the board. The greatest drop has come among women, suburbanites, Midwesterners and those 65 and older. Some of the groups that have shown big declines are among Bush's most reliable supporters, including regular churchgoers and conservatives. usatoday.com