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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (10271)	3/16/2004 6:06:32 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

FOMC A Bit More Circumspect About The Economy? With Low Mortgage Rates, Why The Need For “Creative” Home Financing? northerntrust.com

To: russwinter who wrote (10271)	3/16/2004 7:12:07 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Respond to of 110194

Russ - a start of a clue can be found at the OCC (quarterly derivatives fact sheet). occ.treas.gov Data for gold are explicit in the tables, silver is not detailed. (gold data start page 16 of occ.treas.gov - couldn't download the 4th qrt paper) FWIW: forward sales are not options nor futures, and as such, not reported in the COTs ( for the 3rd quarter of 2003, the COT on gold represents about 15% of the total gold derivatives). Just one observation on the "derivatives meltdown": I would compare with banking business. Banks are allowed to grant credit in a proportion of 8:1 actual assets. Loans are commoditized, become assets. Wash, rinse, repeat a couple of times: it is not unusual for banks to have loans in 50:1 to 120:1 original assets. What would happen if some customers would withdraw their deposits? Argentina. Same applies to the silver (or any other) futures: this also is, as bank credits, a paper market. So, in the derivatives industry, real inventory (= notional) is not relevant. As long as the rules are followed the exchanges will not have any reason to intervene. What would happen if futures longs ask for delivery? Is the same question as for the banks: what would happen if the customers would ask for delivery of their deposited banknotes? I agree with Buffet and Munger: derivatives is sewage. Not specifically the PMs: look at the other tables in the same OCC fact sheet.

To: russwinter who wrote (10271)	3/16/2004 7:15:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

There are eight firms (variously described as bullion dealers, and "trading houses") involved in the big silver sales. Maybe someone else has further detail they could post about this band? If that is true I hope they get their heads (make that asses) handed to them. Would like to see the names if you could find them. The daily swings on silver keep me out of it (other than a bull spread now deep ITM) but these huge swings are also a sign of stress. Unfortunately that makes options expensive right now. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (10271)	3/16/2004 8:23:56 PM
From: Carlos Blanco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

There's an important distinction about these commercials: they aren't producers. I've seen the names of a few of them in the different writings on the topic, and they are not names I recognize. There are eight firms (variously described as bullion dealers, and "trading houses") involved in the big silver sales. Maybe someone else has further detail they could post about this band? butler has written extensively on this topic. below are a couple of relevant URLs (i also recommend reading his weekly and archived essays for the full details regarding his theories): investmentrarities.com investmentrarities.com i'm not a big believer in conspiracies. but, i do think that the supply from dishoarding, forward sales, and leasing in the 80s/90s were a one-time glut that distorted the price of silver and gold below their natural supply/demand levels. so i expect prices to keep rising (abruptly?) as the supply deficits in both markets become dominant (as is the case currently with copper). if there was/is a cartel in gold or silver, then i'm grateful that it has been in place long enough for me to buy coins and shares at cheapo prices. at this point, however, i'm ready for prices to rise. if anyone else is similarly inclined, consider signing the famous petition below, even if you don't believe in conspiracies, on the basis that any publicity for the silver deficit is good publicity. petitiononline.com