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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (68987)	3/17/2004 9:37:37 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

You could be right. I don't know what drives the bonds, except for a huge derivative crowd speculating on interest rates differential, and Japanese record purchases. Technically, it looks like a reversal could be occurring soon. Fundamentally, bonds are very overpriced, and real yields are negative. Then again, if one believes the Fed (deflation) and the government (BLS), they are not. Also, Japan, as a large buyer, is gone for now, since Yen has bounced very significantly. But the highs have been seen (at least, so far) in June 2003. I think, the move down could be pretty vicious, because it will be greatly magnified by derivatives. I have some savings bonds, which I think I'll get rid of this year. You could be right, since the trend is up. And it will be up until it's down -g-