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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (10308)	3/17/2004 11:36:20 AM
From: tonka552000	Respond to of 110194

well that scared the bejeeezus out of me...

To: russwinter who wrote (10308)	3/17/2004 12:34:52 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Now with all that said, here's my best guess for an interest rate forecast. I believe interest rates on both the long and short end will be held low..artificially low, for a long time..certainly into 2005 if you ask me... for the simple reason that if rates are allowed to rise, the mostly illusionary recovery would have to face the prospect of declining home prices and share prices. Correct! WHEN INTEREST RATES DO RISE, THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE WILL DEFLATE AND THE SHARE MARKET WILL DEFLATE. Once again an assumption is made that they will rise. I do not believe that assumption is valid except over a very large timeframe. Certainly beyond 1 year. AT THAT POINT WE WILL EITHER HAVE A GLOBAL DEPRESSION OR A FIAT CURRENCY COLLAPSE AND HYPERINFLATION. If interest rates do rise it will be to cure hyperflation. My bet is that housing stalls, consumer spending slows, the govt cuts back spending in the first year of an election, and we enter into a recession (with rising oil and loss of jobs the main culprits). We will not be hiking into that recession, we will be cutting. If jobs are added coming out of that recession, inflation could indeed get ugly. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (10308)	3/17/2004 12:44:56 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Greenspan gives another Alice in Wonderland speech. This is too funny. Have a go at it. I was too flabbergasted to even comment. Message 19926765