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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (2342)	3/17/2004 3:50:19 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 116555

they are not discounting an improving economy because there is no improving economy and because they know the economy is weakening some stupidly call this the goldylocks scenario weak but improving economy accommodative Fed rates they are accepting the cheap money and using it they are leveraging up to their necks they are engaged in the easypickins from carry trades this is how the Liquidity Trap ensnares Bond Bubble meisters it will get the USA next your entire scenario of bond rallies is the foundation of the Liquidity Trap final chapter the US Economy is dead in the water as it occurs Greenspasm's final (desired) bubble is bonds and if he continues down the current path, we got a Liquidity Trap that grips his nuts like a fuching vise along with the entire economy KRickebacker got it right WE ARE JAPAN, just a matter of time before the party is over, and only then will rates begin to rise, but only from foreign abandonment the gold explosion will be very very very late in coming before it occurs, the Fed Reflation game will spawn a huge energy crisis because the low rates we earn will be accompanied by a USDollar that heads into the shitter I predict EURO will head to 130 by midsummer I predict JYEN will head to 100 parity by Labor Day BOJ has been discredited and repudiated by the laborious and failed currency interventions trade surpluses with both USA and China are too much to fight / jim

To: oldirtybastard who wrote (2342)	3/17/2004 3:59:45 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 116555

the biggest fool out there is Greenspasm but bond market amateur watchers are not grasping the events he advises carry trade participants to prepare for higher rates he advises homeowners to seek ARM mortgages to save money nobody seems to identify the contradiction except Benson he remembers well 1989, when rising mortgage rates killed the S&L's during Greenman's watch so do I GREENSPASM WANTS THE BANKS TO OFFLOAD RISK TO HOMEOWNERS HE REPRESENTS THE BANKS IN THIS RESPECT WE HAVE NO PARALLEL TO THE 2000 STOCK BUST / jim