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To: jjstingray who wrote (93485)	3/17/2004 11:00:14 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

JJ -- it's not that the cycle always nails bottoms (though it did nail the Oct 2002 and march 2003 lows perfectly). It's just that the cycle has worked nicely for me (and others) since the Sept 2001 lows in both down and up markets. However, this last 11 weeker was unlike any prior. It shoulda hit around the first of the year. That's a weekly stick that gapped up. Was it a low? Did the cycle delay a few weeks and peg a high? I really don't know. In cases like this, I tend to go back to the last good hit and count 22. And that gives us next week. The week AFTER next would give 55 weeks from the March low, fwiw or 5 true 11 week cycles. Could it be early and hit this week? Surely, particularly since I have publicly called for next week to be a low. <g> Oh, and I don't put all my faith in them, fwiw. I will happily go long if I think they came in early. So far, nothing proves they have. if this is my idea of a 4 here, it should fake us all into thinking we've started up, right? <g> the freep