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Technology Stocks : 3G Wireless: Coming Soon or Here Now? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: data_rox who wrote (44)	3/20/2004 9:17:02 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

Qualcomm, Nokia, and Tons of 3G Handsets Wireless Data Rox, Thanks for dropping in << just about 7,500 7600's per ton? >> Sounds about right. Time for a little beck of the napkin ... * Qualcomm forecasts 6 million 3GSM WCDMA Handsets (or modem cards) in Europe this year. I'm forecasting a tad higher but we'll use their figure. * Let's be generous and say that ½ million 3GSM WCDMA data cards will be shipped leaving 5½ million handsets to meet forecast. * 5,500,000 ÷ 7,500 (7600s or other handsets) = 733 tons * Assume maybe 300,000 units (40 tons) shipped through Q1 end. * ~700 tons needed next 3 Quarters. << 3G Wireless - coming SOOOOOOOOOON ! >> I am cautiously optimistic so I state that this way: 3G Wireless - coming soooooooooON ! We are right on the bubble. If things don't break quite as well as hoped, by this time next year there should still be at least 50 3GSM WCDMA networks launched, the Koreans and KDDI should be humming with CDMA2000 1xEV-DO and Verizon will be kicking in. Come fall of 2005 things should really be in gear for volumes. Tons and Tons. Thousands of Tons not just Tons or Hundreds of Tons of subscriber equipment. FWLIW, but since wireless is fun, not just a profitable investment arena, I will go on record with my WAG for WCDMA handset forecast and market share for this calendar year: Here's the math to back up my 19% WAG for CY 2004 WCDMA handset sell in and the share of those handsets that hopefully will be powered by Qualcomm MSM62xx: chipsets: Japan Total Europe & ROW Handsets · 2004 Handset Units 7.1m 8.4m 15.5m QCOM Chips Inside 2.3m .6m 2.90m QCOM Market Share 32.0% 7.1% 18.7% Brian Modoff estimates Qualcomm handset sales slightly higher than I do and has their chipset market share at 14.1% this year. Speaking of Qualcomm which has a key G3G role, thank you very much for posting transcripts of Qualcomm's upbeat annual stockholders meeting on the Investors Hub Qualcomm board you host for the benefit of wireless investors. For those that haven't reviewed it the links are here: Part (1) investorshub.com Part (2) investorshub.com Events like the Qualcomm AM that you provided a transcription of don't stay in place forever, and at Qualcomm they stay in place less than I would like. I went to look for them on the recently "made over" Qualcomm website. If the presentations and slides are still there I didn't (yet) find them, but fortunately I already knocked the slides to file. Thanks again for dropping in. Please don't be a stranger. Best, - Eric -