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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65299)	3/19/2004 4:03:48 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 77397

Lizzie, >With oil prices rising and a crashing dollar and no jobs this environment seems like stagflation in the 70s to me.< IIMO, it appears to me that we are headed into two classes, the investor class and the working class. The investing class will invest World wide whereever the money is while the working class will have to compete with employees World wide. I am investing in US Corp. which are doing a World wide business. Monday I received a report that WalMart is beating down the prices on the manufacturers in China which in turn are lowering their cost. The Chinese are afraid to ask for pay raises because there are people waiting to take their jobs. Then, China wll increase the manufacture of goods to sell in the US and other countries, and our manufacture jobs will continue to leave while we in the US will continue to buy Walmart goods and invest in WalMart. Then, this week, we see WalMart is going to sell increased LCD and Liquid Plasma TV flat screens. Great for the consumer and US tech companies invested in China and India such as AMAT, CSCO, INTC, Qcom, WMT, and others. Just my opinion.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65299)	3/19/2004 9:45:35 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Hi Lizzie, a lot of people in the U.S. think that if jobs aren't present then the economy must be in the crapper, but that's wrong. Jobs are always a lagging indicator, meaning they come only after the economy has already recovered and only after the economy has taken up all the slack. You see what happens is that when the economy tanks and companies start to improve productivity and cost controls, the economy builds up a lot of slack or excess capacity. When the economy then starts to improve, this excess capacity starts getting eaten up. When the slack is gone, then companies have to ramp up production even further and that usually means more jobs. Anyway, the most reliable independent organization that predicts economic cycle turns is ECRI. Check out their site: businesscycle.com They are saying that the economy is humming along nicely and I believe it. Company earnings have been excellent for 2 quarters running and this one is shaping up nicely. There is a very high probability that significant job growth will occur within the next 6 months, as well, since excess capacity is almost eaten up. BTW, Greenspan has been saying the same thing in his last few reports.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65299)	3/20/2004 12:06:19 AM
From: kvkkc1	Respond to of 77397

I think you are out there again as usual regarding stagflation under one of your heroes, Jimmy Carter. Interest rates were about 13 percentage points higher and inflation was also up from where it is today substantially. You obviously are incapable of doing any logical research and rely on the inaccurate media idiots for your data.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (65299)	3/20/2004 12:51:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 77397

...is it your own anecdotal evidence or are you relying on the statistics? Yeah, why rely on statistics when good anecdotes are available. You get better laughs with anecdotes, anyway. Much better than cold hard boring facts. With oil prices rising and a crashing dollar and no jobs this environment seems like stagflation in the 70s to me. You may have a point - except for the no stagnation and no inflation parts, it's JUST like it. ;-)