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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (93570)	3/19/2004 10:05:58 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I see lotsa' bullish charts especially among the semis. That YHOO chart portends up too, nice broken wedge there. The feeling on the board seems kind of split leaning towards bullish. We have our bears too.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (93570)	3/19/2004 10:38:24 AM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Allan, it appears to me that the consensus at this board is that SPX is at least in an the A of an ABC off this month's high, and some feel it's in a 1 down since then. If the former is indeed true, I would think that it would take "months" to complete. Whether it take until the end of May or the end of some other month is open for debate. When Shack speaks of the "board kind of split leaning toward bullish" I believe he meant bullish after said ABC is done. He mentioned the other day that he thought SPX recently completed a large ABC from the 10/02 low. Right Shack? Some of the more bullish think the move off the 10/02 low is a five wave move and that we are currently in the 4 of it.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (93570)	3/19/2004 11:57:41 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 209892

I think a lot of it has to do with your perspective on the secular trend. If you believe that we are in a secular bear market, then the four-year-cycle has probably already topped out. If you think that this is a real bull, within the context of a secular bull market like the past couple decades, then there are probably new highs down the road. I don't see how anyone can expect the latter, though. And if I were asked to write a script on how, when, and where a shortened cyclical bull might top within this supposed secular bear, it would look a hell of a lot like this: 1. With the SPX at a 62% retrace of the prior bear (1189) 2. With SOX having recovered at least half its losses (533) 3. With NDX having recovered 38% of its losses (1582) 4. After 12-18 months of up in the 48-month cycle 5. With Internets topping out well in advance of the rest of the market (see AMZN) 6. With SOX leading the way down, and SPX/DJIA showing relative strength 7. With sentiment indicies pegged 8. With J6P buying mutual funds hand over fist again 9. With insiders selling shares as fast as they can dial their brokers My problem here is finding good short targets. The valuations don't look as extreme as 2000, so it's harder by comparison to find comfortable entries. I'm back to trying to think in terms of a bull market reflected in the mirror. Where O'neill at IBD is looking for follow-through days to the upside, I'm looking for (and finding) follow-through to the downside. I think the next deflationary scare is approaching as all the pre-election pump-priming fades away. I'd love to be short, but I'm struggling with finding "safe" entries. BC