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To: Perspective who wrote (93589)	3/19/2004 12:28:26 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Respond to of 209892

<<I don't see how anyone can expect the latter, though.>> ....and I'm sure it will come as no surprise to you that those of us who expect the latter ("new highs down the road ") don't see how anyone can expect otherwise..... Guess that's making a market.......<VBG>

To: Perspective who wrote (93589)	3/19/2004 12:36:13 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

good post. measures of volatility on a larger timescale indicate to me that there may be no good setups or entries before we get a significant decline ... I'm a little bit short, but nervous -- lots of stuff does look short-term oversold, but ...

To: Perspective who wrote (93589)	3/19/2004 1:03:19 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Good post, Bobcor. I have many questions, of course, but I will just pose one: You say... <<5. With Internets topping out well in advance of the rest of the market (see AMZN)>> Well, yeah, AMZN has fallen. But EBAY set a new high very recently. ASKJ appeared to set one yesterday. MAMA...oh, forget MAMA. But the point is, the HHH (internet Holdrs) peaked at the end of January with the market. It is now making like it's breaking back UP. YHOO appears bullish here... pointing back up ahead of the broader market, perhaps. If internets lead, as you say, what message is this? The INX, if you prefer that index, has broken above what would be the bottom of any 1 down, if this were a new bear there. Maybe it's a more complex correction or intertwined 1 and 2's, but what is uber-bearish in that chart in your eyes? FWIW, I love Amazon... for ordering books. I don't understand its valuation, but I do watch the i-nets a lot. I don't see them as you do right now, so I want to hear more of why you think they're leading us down. Gracias, the freep

To: Perspective who wrote (93589)	3/19/2004 1:18:01 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I'm very long poots on XLF. Premium is very low. IMO the earnings growth for financial companies must have topped. Financials IS the bubble.

To: Perspective who wrote (93589)	3/19/2004 1:59:33 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

bobcor, "the valuations don't look as extreme as 2000, so it's harder by comparison to find comfortable entries" Right you are on valuations not looking as extreme, as I read the other day that currently the valuation on the SPX is lower now than at the 3/02 low. But tell me how you use valuations to determine short entries. Do you wait for an intermediate term trend change, then make a list of stocks with triple digit PEs and then start looking at charts for picks? When it comes to shorting I usually only look at the chart to determine my entry, without looking at its PE; in that way I'm an "equal opportunity" shorter. <g>