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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (2556)	3/20/2004 11:48:17 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

NOT NOW ... but SOON ... dont you love it? so much depends on the unsustainable continuing and market forces wreaking havoc when that happens hey, got a quick one for you, Mike last August Kurt Richebacher and I got into one of our (perhaps 10) arguments they were peaceful, except for 2-3, where he was also wrong he insisted, pounding the table, that the Bank of Japan could not, would not, and will not allow the JYen to rise above 87 "the consequences would be disastrous to their export economy, and will never happen" I disagreed, for reasons I state usually here 1. big trade surplus with USA 2. almost as big a surplus with China (pegged) 3. some resolution of bank problems in last 5 years his premise was exactly the same as yours the damage would be too great, so it wont happen WRONG !!! I was right within 40 days now the Japanese export business is threatened I expect a JYen move to parity this year that should roil their entire economy but wait!!! the outcome was harmful this time, the bond market will crack within 400 days or will it surprise us by cracking within 3-6 months we will see I expect surprises I expected a nice bounce off JYen 89 two weeks ago we got it but I did not expect to hear the BOJ backing off I suppose using up $100B in two months might go a long way toward depleting their budgeted $400B Squander Acct to hold the FOREX dike the other big argument KRich and I got into was overcapacity he looks at net investment (investmt minus depreciation) in the aggregate I maintained that telecom generally suffered from massive overcapacity, esp cell phone expansion and integrating portions of fiberoptic, with plenty of missing gates he pointed to aggregates, yelled at me, and sounded like a spoiled brat who was caught in an untenable web if you are wrong, have no info in component detail, then yell and create a bluster, rely on your reputation, and intimidate the opponent kind of sad really of course telecom had overcapacity, with 100 bankruptcies of major/minor businesses in 2000 and 2001 alone has anyone noticed cellphone and longdistance coming down in price for service? he didnt know jack shit about telecom, and couldnt admit it we in the USA live inside its overcap I think there are two arguments that lose money 1. this time is different 2. that wont happen, because the damage would be too great we will see, my friend / jim