Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (8500)	3/20/2004 1:08:21 PM
From: Susan Saline	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

OT Can one short in a "cash account"?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (8500)	3/20/2004 7:57:58 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

OT Hi Sam, The companies that I have been buying I believe are undervalued or I wouldn't buy them. Below I have listed a very quick view of each company and why I believe they are decent buys at this time. I encourage anyone to post here who wants to contradict what I've written. You are right that the trend is down and it would have made more sense to be on the short side instead of long-but this view is only obvious in hindsight. The market clearly disagrees with my choices of late and it's something I have been very concerned with. If you drop by Don's thread, you can see the PEs and PEGs are dropping like stones in water and the values appear to be more compelling. I totally disagree with the market's perception that the SCE sector will peak in the first half of this year - from a fundamental point of view. From a stock price perspective, this absolutely has been the case but that doesn't mean this will be the case later in the year. Right now, I guess I'm trying to determine whether I'm the stubborn one or if it's the market that is (or should I say the analysts are) being blind to the future with their valuation call on many semis and, most specifically, with the SCE companies. I'm a big fan of the "trend is your friend"! In this case, the underlying fundamentals trend for the semi sector is improving for the better. I can't explain why the BoA's of this world have decided to scare everyone out of the semi sector at this point in time? I only rely on my own analysis which differs substantially from those who say this semi cycle is basically over or that all the future good news has been factored into the stock's prices. SYXI has a price to sales ratio below 2 yet they have demonstrated 65% revenue growth over the past year and have gone to break even from heavy losses at the bottom line. I believe that they deserve closer to a P/S of 4 or 5 based on my analysis. I also think they are a compelling target for the right company looking for an acquisition in their niche. ASML is one of the leading lithography companies in the world and they trade at a forward PE of about 16. I believe the market has discounted their immediate future eps by at least 30%, which reduces their forward PE to around 11. RFMD next year's earnings estimates are way too low, imo. I see the consensus as off by about 50% and that they will produce over $0.50/share - giving them yoy eps growth over 100% - for a stock trading at a forward PE of 16. I believe that there should be at least a 50% move higher in the stock by the end of this year. While the competition in this space is tough, I believe RFMD will outperform the current expectation. ASYT - even the analysts can't agree on this company. BoA and others have negative eps for next year and I believe the company will generate over $0.40/share for the next FY. The company has a $400 million market cap and next year they will have revenues of at least $500 million and probably over $600 million - giving the company a P/S well under 1. I also believe that the concerns about low margins will fade as the year progresses. VECO will grow eps at about 100% in the next FY. Forward PE of 17. Absolutely no respect given to a great company with an outstanding track record. Their expected revenue growth rate is very low and I believe the company will greatly exceed the 13% currently expected. FSII is a turn around play and is the most speculative of my group. Their eps losses are improving with the pickup in the industry and they are also selling at a discounted forward PE of 15. mh