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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (45791)	3/20/2004 2:36:40 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Speculations on high value target.. Where is Dr Ayman al-Zawahri? By Rahimullah Yusufzai PESHAWAR: Is Dr Ayman al-Zawahri really holed up in the besieged Azam Warsak area in South Waziristan? Or has there been a miscalculation on the part of the military commanders who felt the fierce resistance being put up by the militants was primarily aimed at protecting a high-value al-Qaeda target? President General Pervez Musharraf’s comment on the issue during the CNN interview not only fuelled speculation as to the identity of the high-value al-Qaeda target but also raised expectations with regard to the success of the ongoing military campaign in South Waziristan. Despite the subsequent explanations by government spokesmen that the president didn’t mention Dr al-Zawahri’s name, the international media is now focused on only one question and that is the fate of the Egyptian surgeon who is now effectively the al-Qaeda number two. The government should prepare itself for a round of media criticism if Dr al-Zawahri isn’t found alive or dead. There would be criticism that Dr al-Zawahri was able to slip out of the supposedly tight military cordon. The government would also attract flak for misleading the world by claiming that somebody important in al-Qaeda could be hiding in the targeted area. The US would feel justified in demanding of the government to let its troops enter the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) due to the inability of the Pakistani troops to nab the wanted men. It would be wrong to rule out the presence of Dr al-Zawahri in South Waziristan, or indeed in some other place in Pakistan. Most al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders and commanders tried to escape to Pakistan after the fall of Taliban regime in Afghanistan and many of them managed to do so. It is possible that Dr al-Zawahri, or even Osama bin Laden, spent time in South Waziristan at one stage. But common sense demands that they would try and move out of a place that in recent months has become the focus of an intense hunt for them. If they are still there, it only shows that they don’t have many other safe places to hide and are unable also to take the risk of moving elsewhere. One would like to believe that the president and his military commanders haven’t based their assessment about the presence of the high-value al-Qaeda target in the area only on the basis of the fierce resistance being put up by the militants. Though military spokesman Maj Gen Shaukat Sultan made it clear that the assessment wasn’t based on any information gleaned from captured militants, it is possible that the US and Pakistani army commanders are in possession of intercepts and leads that points to the possible presence of Dr al-Zawahri in the mountains of South Waziristan. Otherwise, those who know the al-Qaeda fighters, or are aware of the fighting skills and determination of Chechens, Uzbekistanis and Pashtuns, won’t be surprised a bit by the spirited fight being put up by the outnumbered and outgunned men holding out in the villages around Azam Warsak. They never surrender and are willing to die for their cause. They would put up a strong resistance with or without Dr al-Zawahri. Also there was an assumption that bin Laden and Dr al-Zawahri would stick together as they have done all these years. If they are now separated and Dr al-Zawahri is holed up alone in South Waziristan, there could be two explanations for this. One, that the two have decided to stay separately so that one is able to survive and run al-Qaeda in case the other is killed or captured. Two, that bin Laden is long dead and that is why Dr al-Zawahri is alone rather than in the company of his al-Qaeda boss. We also have to keep in mind that there are fewer Arabs among those resisting the Pakistan Army compared to the Uzbekistanis, Chechens and Pakistani tribesmen. The Arabs are the real al-Qaeda and the followers of bin Laden and Dr al-Zawahri. They would surely fight to protect their two al-Qaeda leaders. For the Uzbekistanis and Chechens and Pakistani Pashtun tribesmen, association with al-Qaeda would be far less important than the urge to help the homeless Arabs. The Uzbekistani Islamists would be more inclined to protect their leader Tahir Yuldesh, head of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who too is believed to be hiding in the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. For the Chechens, it would be absolutely essential to protect their commander, Daniar, who too is reportedly holed up in the tribal borderland of Afghanistan and Pakistan. And for the Pakistani tribesmen who are part of this group, it would be much more relevant to protect Nek Mohammad, Sharif Khan, Nur Islam, Maulvi Abbas and Maulvi Aziz, five of the most wanted men in South Waziristan. It is possible that Tahir Yuldesh, commander Daniar and Nek Mohammad and his four colleagues are the high-value targets now holding out in South Waziristan.