South Asia
20 March 04
208.39.143.167
Afghan offensive: Grand plans hit rugged reality
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The plan to eradicate the Afghan resistance was
straightforward: US-led coalition forces would drive from inside
Afghanistan into the last real sanctuary of the insurgents, and meet the
Pakistani military driving from the opposite direction. There would then
be no safe place left to hide for the Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants, or,
presumably, for Osama bin Laden himself. The plan's implementation began
with the launch of operation "Mountain Storm" around March 15.
But the insurgents have a plan of their own, which they have revealed to
Asia Times Online. Conceived by foreign resistance fighters of
Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Arab origin, it is a classic guerrilla
stratagem that involves enmeshing the mighty military forces of the
United States and its allies in numerous local conflicts, diverting them
from their real goal and dissipating their strength.
The insurgents' plan, too, has been put into effect, and the fierce
fighting in Pakistan's tribal agency of South Waziristan last Tuesday,
when resistance fighters and their tribal sympathizers took on the
Pakistani military and routed it, was an early manifestation. Now
Pakistan must quell its own rebel tribespeople before it continues to
help the US with Mountain Storm. Indeed, Pakistan is attempting just
that, on Thursday launching a "full force" operation in South
Waziristan, using artillery and helicopter gunships. At the same time,
tribal opposition to the Pakistani military has spread to North
Waziristan - all according to plan, it seems.
In an exclusive meeting with Asia Times Online, a prominent planner of
the Afghan resistance spelled out the strategy. Pointing to a hand-drawn
map, the insurgent indicated an area he called "Shawal". Technically
speaking, "Shawal" falls on the Afghan side of the Durand Line that
divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Editor's note: The border area inside
North Waziristan is also called Shawal.) In reality, "Shawal" is a
no-man's land, a place no one would want to go to unless he were as
tough as the local tribespeople, a guerrilla fighter taking on the US,
or, perhaps, Osama bin Laden. Shawal is a deep and most dangerous maze.
The insurgent described it thus:
"One crosses the first mountain and sees a similar mountain emerge and
after crossing another mountain he feels a spin in his head and thinks
the whole world in this area is the same and leads the way nowhere."
This is the last safe haven for the Afghan resistance, from which they
launch attacks on coalition forces and the Afghan government, and to
which they return to regroup and receive sustenance from the locals. And
this is the kind of terrain the US and its allies will encounter in
their drive to occupy "Shawal" whether they come in from the Afghan side
via Bermal, or from the Pakistan side via South or North Waziristan.
Those who are masters of this maze can raid the Afghan provinces of
Ghazni, Paktia, and Paktika. The only masters are people of the Data
Khail and Zaka Khail tribes and the insurgents who base themselves there.
The Data Khail and Zaka Khail have a long history of defiance and have
never capitulated to any intruder. The tribesmen are as tough as the
terrain, and they have been known for centuries for their strong bonds
of loyalty, such that "even an enemy who requests shelter would be given
it". These two tribes are now the protectors of the Taliban and al-Qaeda
fighters based in "Shawal". By occupying the area, the US hopes to
deprive the insurgents of the tribes' crucial support. Forced to flee,
the insurgents would eventually fall into the hands of the United
States' local proxy networks of anti-Taliban tribes and warlords. Such
is the plan.
In response, the insurgents have decided that instead of avoiding
confrontation with the coalition forces as they have previously, they
will meet them head-on in this unforgiving landscape, while diverting
their attention with attacks and harassment in other areas.
The Pakistanis, under intense US pressure to help out, and as of this
week's visit by Secretary of State Colin Powell the recipients of even
more US military largess (see Pakistan as key non-NATO ally), are
already bogged down in South Waziristan. Sources in Wana, headquarters
of South Waziristan agency, tell Asia Times Online that a full brigade
of the Pakistani army, along with paramilitary troops and backed by
artillery, helicopters and two other aircraft, is now attacking tribal
positions in Kaloo Shah, Sheen Warsak and Azam Warsak. Sources say that
the targeted Wazir tribes have asked neighboring tribes to join the fray.
And as predicted by Asia Times Online, the South Waziristan fighting has
spread to other areas. According to latest information, an attack on
Pakistani troops in North Waziristan has killed a major and several
soldiers. The incident, near the "Shawal" area, means the Pakistani army
has a new, simultaneous problem to deal with, and their advance has been
stopped. The operation that began as a hunt for Osama bin Laden has
already degenerated into sideshows against rebel Pakistani tribespeople.
In Afghanistan, US-led forces can expect increasing hit-and-run attacks
by local Taliban, who will then melt back into the local population.
While the troops engage in house-to-house searches for the perpetrators,
the drive for "Shawal" is dissipated and slowed.
It seems the insurgents' plan is already paying off. How they go about
building on their initial success will become clear in the coming weeks. |
