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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (2590)	3/22/2004 11:41:18 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I hear you, Mike in 1997, 1998, 1999, Warren Buffet was called an idiot he missed the entire bull market boom in tech stocks he might have used the word SOON also, in describing when the horribly overvalued niche would collapse I dont think Benson 100% missed the point at all his points still stand Asians are subsidizing our credit markets they are provided the largest vendor financing in history this is temporary the deflation (from foreign standpoint alone) is phoney how do you justify the claim he is 100% off the mark ? he was wrong in the implication that bonds were a bad investment in autumn, granted you didnt hammer the Benson article you dismissed it summarily, without addressing individual points I agree with your observations about the very powerful momentum for deflation continuing unlike you, I prefer to look at the impending powerful forces likely to change the equaion you dismiss them as not impending that is where we disagree otherwise, I am reading from your same page theoretically Benson is righton practically, he is like Buffet, ignoring the last 10% to be made on bonds in the blowoff or is it the last 5% ??? following the 7% annualized PPI number, I think we will soon see higher passed-on Chinese finished product prices they are absorbing higher materials costs across the board THIS IS THE GATING EVENT IN MY BOOK for higher CPI but then again, that will cause more squeezed margins and budgets however, we may disagree here I believe higher Chinese prices and higher CPI will signal the advent of STAGFLATION recession with price inflation and rising rates your arguments must stand backtesting late during the 1970 decade when stagflation raged I think a huge reason why it raged then and not yet now is the new money creation now is departing the US$-based economy and financial markets thus, while the Fed is inflating, the money supply is flat if MZM never rises, then you win but it is rising, see research.stlouisfed.org / jim