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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (69078)	3/21/2004 1:45:18 PM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill - It has not been dramatic because the volatility has been relatively low? Also possibly it's waiting for the S&P to break below the 100MA which could be supporting the market now and possible slow drift for a few more days as long as SPX stays above 100MA. Weekly charts confirmed the breakdowns, so downside has the momentum. IMHO, from weekly and monthly charts, the first test or support levels are DJI 7500, NAZ 1200, and SPX 950, and the second test levels are NAZ 1000, and SPX 800. No second level for the DJI. First test level in the next 2 to 3 months, and the second level at year end or early next year. Based on the low volatility, I think this downmove may be only to the first test level, and not go to the second test level. The second test levels would make better base for the next bull market, imo, but may not be realistic based on today's monetary and fiscal condition and the overall global economic transformation. Ah!, oh!, gasp!, huh?! and politics too but I don't know how to gage that. What's your read from your P&F and other technicals you follow?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (69078)	3/22/2004 8:00:21 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

And what do you need, a crash? They don't happen in reality. -g- Of course, you need them if you play ST puts. But I have given up on those some time ago. It seems to be a little easier to play LT moves. Then, volativity increase is more than enough to still get you large profits. I wish I could do a rigorous study of the Hurst exponent (which shows how trending the market is) over different time scales. I almost can bet that for time scales < 3 months the fluctuations are almost random (TA does not work), so one can't win playing options due to the buy/sell spread and fees. From what I read, 6 month and longer, the market is very trending (put it another way, TA works!)