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To: Jeffrey S. Mitchell who wrote (47610)	3/21/2004 10:11:58 PM
From: brian h	Respond to of 74559

""Many Taiwanese appear to be immensely worried China will have no choice but to attack if the ruling government continues to poke them with a stick. This doesn't worry you?"" Let me say this first. Taiwan will never declare independence if China do not fire the shot first.Mr. Chen or Mr. Lien are smart enough to know their boundaries unless they are well prepared for a war with China. JMHO. Taiwan does not need to declare its independence. Why? It itself is an independent country called Republic of China (ROC)though not too many countries recognize it. That is why it is now called Taiwan because China registers its domain name (ggg) in UN first (technically kicked ROC out in 1974 because one China only. I believed.) The bottom line for China is "One China" then "Two Systems" policy. As long as Taiwan does not unilaterally announce its independence. China will not act first. All will be fine if China government acts rationally. Then there is that part you mentioned. No one knows if China will act rationally or not. There comes the worries from all sides. 1)Yes. 49% of (Hot out of the current election. (gg)) Taiwanese think Mr. Chen will more likely bring Taiwan to war against China than Mr. Lien and James Soong. Or do not think he will lead Taiwan to more economic prosperity. 2)China think Mr. Chen is intentionally try to take Taiwan to an inevitable independence. That will have an impact (slightly or huge pending on one's interpretation) on China's growing economy and its goal to become a major power in East Asia. They are willing to take on Taiwan now instead of later. They will use all excuses to do it including Mr. Chen intention to declare independence. 3)US has enough of its own problems. Do not want to take on China's big issue at this time. US also knows that Taiwan almost always count on US for anything. US can easily yield its influence without problems. US just want to make sure Mr. Chen will not use his Taiwanese democratic supports and announce its independence without counseling US. That will really mess up US interests. 4)Japan and the rest of the world (most European countries). They are currently heavily investing into China. An unstable war between Taiwan and China or US and Taiwan vs. China will put brakes on everything. Hence mess up their interests. Most of the countries issued their concerns along with China about Taiwan's referendum vote before the election. Mr. Chen used all plots including referendum votes to make himself reelected as a president. That referendum vote actually help make him reelected. Why? Another 49% of Taiwanese that voted for him think he can better represent fellow Taiwanese to stand up against those pressures from China. One thing is for sure. Taiwanese appreciate their current democratic society no matter their leaders are Mr. Lien or Mr. Chen. They do not want to yield to the current China regime. Taiwanese are well aware the dangers of the current China regime. They have no choice but to stand up against this irrational regime if the shots are from China first. This inevitable clash is decided on the side of China with all excuses. Not Taiwan. Brian