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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (10646)	3/22/2004 1:02:58 PM
From: Roads End	Respond to of 110194

I hear what you are saying RE the delayed move in the price of building materials WRT the housing boom. I have scratched my head over that one too. With housing starts around 2 million (at least a third above sustainable levels) we should have seen surging prices a year and a half ago. The Canadian tariff thing has been there for 25 or more years so I don't think it is more than a talking point. As for OSB, the closure of conventional plywood capacity and heavy demand has given it some pricing leverage. GP and WY are my favorite shorts though I have not taken a position yet. WY especially is vulnerable because of their epic debt level. They have been selling off their timber base to service debt and maintain dividends at unsustainable levels.