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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (2653)	3/22/2004 12:03:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

OECD says US, ECB seen raising rates this yr, but rates will remain low UPDATE [Who the F is the OECD? anyone here know? - mish] Monday, March 22, 2004 10:27:10 AM PARIS (AFX) - The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are expected to start edging interest rates higher this year, but in historical terms rates will remain low, the OECD said Forward interest rates and futures contracts indicate that market participants expect US rates to rise some time in the second quarter, with euro zone rates rising somewhat later in the year, the OECD said in its semiannual Financial Market Trends report Meanwhile, markets see a high probability of another rise in UK rates in the near future, and there are some indications that rates in Japan are expected to start picking up slightly this year, it added But rates will remain at relatively low levels for some time in the major economies, it said "Policy rates are likely to remain low, as the US economy has yet to show significant improvement in employment and in Europe, growth remains sluggish," the OECD said The decline of the dollar against the euro has already provided a further easing of monetary conditions in the US and a tightening of conditions in the euro zone, it noted The OECD said the euro zone economy is growing only sluggishly "Growth in many continental European countries remains somewhat sluggish ... recently released figures for several European countries suggest that growth remains below expectations, as the strong euro has put some pressure on exports while household spending remains scant," it said But recent data suggest that the Japanese economy may now be on a firmer path to recovery, and US fourth quarter GDP data are also consistent with a picture of an ongoing recovery, even if growth slowed from the robust pace recorded in the third quarter, the organisation said US GDP growth slowed to an annualised 4.1 pct in the fourth quarter from an exceptionally high figure of 8.2 pct in the third quarter Recent falls in confidence data in a number of countries do not yet mark a trend, and consumer and business confidence data continue to reflect a positive economic outlook, the OECD said The impact of euro strength on euro zone exports has so far been more modest than expected, it said. It cited a JP Morgan Chase estimate that exports fell 4-8 pct in the fourth quarter, but said most companies have fared better than investors expected The dollar's decline, meanwhile, has so far not led to any major reversal of the US current account deficit Asia is going to have to bear a greater share of the burden of exchange rate adjustment if the US is to reduce its projected 2004 current account deficit of 585 bln usd, the OECD said The Asia Pacific region is projected to have a current account surplus of 238 bln usd, compared with a surplus of just 49.7 bln for the euro zone, and some Asian countries have intervened heavily in foreign exchange markets to slow the appreciation of their currencies against the dollar Hedging activities by euro zone exporters may also be delaying a further dollar decline in the short term, the OECD said The sharing of the burden of future dollar depreciation is a key factor for financial market prospects, it said "The outlook for financial markets depends importantly on how remaining imbalances are unwound. Among the more important factors is the adjustment in the exchange value of the US dollar. Thus far, the downward adjustment of the dollar has been orderly, if uneven in the rate of adjustment across major currencies," it said fxstreet.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (2653)	3/22/2004 12:07:58 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Are you Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa? ECB's Padoa-Schioppa says EU may need to do more to prevent corporate scandals Monday, March 22, 2004 2:48:34 PM BERLIN (AFX) - European Central Bank executive board member Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa said the EU may need to take further steps to prevent corporate accounting scandals fxstreet.com

To: Tommaso who wrote (2653)	3/22/2004 12:11:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japan land prices fall for 13th year despite economic recovery - govt survey Monday, March 22, 2004 8:54:09 AM TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Japanese land prices fell for the 13 consecutive year in 2003 despite clear signs of a recovery in the world's second-largest economy, a government survey shows Commercial property prices as of Jan 1, 2004 were 7.4 pct lower than year-earlier levels, the Land, Infrastructure and Transport Ministry said in a survey, which is used as the yardstick for the real-estate sector Residential property prices fell by an average 5.7 pct The report came as the Japanese economy grew a strong 2.7 pct in 2003 after a 0.4 pct contraction in 2002 "Land prices have not hit a bottom yet," said Toshio Sumitani, economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Centre. "There will be a lag of a year or so until an economic recovery leads to an upturn in land prices "People do not pursue land deals only because they see good economic signs as trading land is always accompanied by risks," he said Sumatani said 2004 could show a rise in land prices, although many companies are still putting property up for sale as part of their restructuring He added that Japanese land prices were unlikely to shoot up as many companies are expanding globally, building factories in other countries and so depressing land demand in Japan "Demand for residential areas is also unlikely to rise sharply, considering the population composition," he said Japan's population, currently at 126.7 mln, is forecast to peak by 2006, according to government reports fxstreet.com