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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (10651)	3/22/2004 2:08:51 PM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<The price of oil is high - VERY HIGH> The price of oil is going to go a lot higher in a few years. China's oil demand is increasing a lot faster than producer output. The only way this is going to be ameliorated is for higher prices to choke off demand. Personally I would like to see the government fill the SPR to the brim. In retrospect these prices are going to seem cheap. Plus with the turmoil going on in Venezuela, we need the buffer.

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (10651)	3/22/2004 8:02:18 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 110194

Steve, I was commenting on your argument that stocks are high (if you include the spr). The oil market doesn't count the spr when it thinks about the relationship between stocks and price (an inverse one). The issue of whether or not continued buying of crude to add to the spr influences price is a different matter. It may have a small influence, but to put things in perspective you need to look at the % addition of spr compared to total global demand. It's an extremely small % of total daily demand. Personally, I think filling the SPR is just reflective of some latent hoarding tendencies by the retentives in washington, but I don't think stopping the fill will change crude prices much.