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To: The Ox who wrote (8534)	3/22/2004 5:04:03 PM
From: aniela	Respond to of 13403

OT: another court victory for SYXI today .

To: The Ox who wrote (8534)	3/22/2004 7:28:01 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 13403

OT Yes, Mike. Sometimes geopolitical events have a way of spilling over into the macroeconomic realm. We still have to figure out how we are going to pay for things like Medicare, Social Security, the War on Terrorism, Iraq and our voracious appetite for oil and other imports. The macroeconomic picture is not pretty. The fiscal stimulus we got from the tax cuts that Bush gave us and the monetary stimulus that we got from the Fed were like candy that gave us a nice temporary sugar high, but did lettle to help in the long run. Now that the cookie jar seems destined to close, we have to figure out how we are going to pay the bill. I remember how the price tag for the Vietnam War did not really sink in until the '73-74 recession. The War on Terrorism looks to me like it could take a long, long time to win, if such an outcome is even possible in this day and age. I really don't think we have even begun to calculate the LT costs of this Hundred Years War. I sometimes think that it will not get any better until we finally figure out that what most incites the terrorists is simply the presence of "our infidel boots" on their "sacred" soil. It's not something that is completely rational to us in the West, but is just a theme that is reflected in certain popular interpretations of the Koran, including that of the fundamental extremists. The big question is what happens if they are UN troops instead of US troops? What if there were an Islamic version of NATO to help keep the peace in places like Iraq? For the moment, with Iraq contained, the presence of American troops in Saudi Arabia does not seem quite so necessary. If the War on Terrorism is really a war, it would seem to me that one could negotiate with the "enemy"? In the blunt approach we have taken, such a strategy has the overtones of appeasement. Yet I wonder if such a strategy might not be helpful in at least exposing who our enemies are and what are their exact objectives. If we can not win the war in an acceptable timeframe, perhaps we need to think about unconventional alternatives. Even after today's carnage in the markets, there are still more new highs than lows on the Naz, suggesting that we still may have a way to go before we start to see capitulation, if that is how this downtrend is going to finally end. Another possibility that I would rather not even think about is that we could test those Oct 2002 lows. Like it or not, that is the only support this market really has. Sam