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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (127087)	3/23/2004 2:20:04 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

Interesting debka headlines. I don't know what they're worth, but debka's Pal sources check out more often than not: DEBKAfile’s Palestinian sources report Arafat’s rising sense of vulnerability after every Arab ruler he called Monday gave him brush-off: Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, Egypt’s Mubarak, Yemen’s Salah, Jordan’s Abdullah and Tunisian Bin Ali. All refused to come to telephone DEBKAfile reveals: Hamas turned to foreign allies – Iran and Hizballah, al Qaeda and in its need Arafat’s Fatah-al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades – for mega-revenge against Israeli or Jewish target after losing its own terrorist deterrent. Prior to Yassin’s killing, five Israeli tank raids killing 70 operatives cut deep into Hamas’ operational resources. Organization now locked in leadership contest. It occurs to me that one of the pillars of the Pal strategy has been to hurt Israel as much as possible while preventing an Israeli military response - a real one, that is. It failed in Spring 2002 after the Passover seder suicide bombing, and the Palestinians were hurt by the result. (Despite the babble of 'expert' commentary, all the other raids do not imo constitute a real attempt at a military solution, just a holding action. If you are attempting a military solution, by definition you are trying to win a war) Looks like the Israelis have decided to go in again.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (127087)	3/23/2004 7:53:28 AM
From: Sig	Respond to of 281500

IMO great progress is being made that should lead finally to a resolution of Israels territorial problems with the Palestinians. Our success in stabilizing the situation in Iraq and the new awareness in Europe that actions must be taken against terrorists and the instabilities they cause is a turning point leading to the next step. Saddam has been removed from office without impediment by nearby Arab Nations, and in fact with the approval of some like Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. They may not trust our spoken words, but proof is now on the ground that we are not in the ME to conquer anyone, but to soon return Iraq to its rightful owners under the watchfull eye of Al Sistani. The elimination of major targets in Iraq and training of Iraq police forces now leaves our Military free to handle any major conflagration that might have occurred in the ME as a result of the occupation of Iraq. A situation that did not occur but is worrisome if we had interfered in Israel at the same time. The timing is right for Israel and Palestine to settle their boundaries and end the killing. The US stands ready to prevent interference, to stop countries from sending terrorists and war materials to the Palestinians. Israel can do, and would prefer to do, the job alone. They just needed to be assured that any actions they take would not ignite an area-wide conflict. Arafat said he could not control the Hamas, claiming it would ignite a civil war. If that occurs now,it will be confined to Palestine, and without foreign support they will soon run out of ammo, or of Palestinians. Sig