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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rink who wrote (117623)	3/23/2004 6:18:22 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Let's say I do like Keith's hint, similar to what others seem to do too. Not sure what "the hint" is...Covers all the bases the way I read it...I guess if it helps you, it's good! Couple of points to emphasize with respect to the Bloomberg release: 1. There remains a week to go in q1 and flash prices are hot. Not sure if you recall last June, about 5 days before q2 earnings came in, Mr. Rivet,. the financial officer, estimated revenues at $615M...They came in at $640M, some $25M higher! Consequently, I'm not carving in stone what Mr. Richard, a sales VP, is calling for with more than a week to go! 2. Recent A64 price increases indicate to me that A64 demand is solid, coming on the heels of Ms. Guo's claim that massive amounts of A64's are on China's shelves. If AMD shipped 700k A64's in q1, which, based upon the foregoing seems highly likely, then q1 cpu revenues are highly likely to exceed q4's. 3. Spot flash prices are up 100% from those at the end of q4. Any new business in q1 is going to contribute handsomely to profit. Something doesn't jibe here. Either Mr. Richard is sandbagging, for whatever reason, AMD is pulling in serious costs into q1, or Ms. Guo is wildly exaggerating, or A64 production is nowhere near 700k in q1! I'm sticking with my model and am looking for $1.25b in q1 revenues...Profit? Well that is a manufactured number in this business...Just ask INTC! And just remember the currency gains that weren't included in q4's eps calculation. Nevertheless, I'll be surprised if AMD doesn't show a q1 profit, and I won't be surprised if it comes in higher than q4!