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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: mishedlo who wrote (10741)3/23/2004 2:44:42 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I hope you settle down, sounding as nasty as with RussW
we merely disagree
try to take a chill pill
your responses do not foster calm discussion

first, in summer 2002 Chinese leaders announced an intention to balance their reserves toward EuroBonds, USTBonds, and Gold
this statement was made even though a Yuan-$ peg existed
since the biggest incremental piece to their trade surplus is USTB, then I suspect if they make good on their word, they will F'ing rebalance a little
make sense?
I am unaware whether you know about that statement
I take them at their word
besides, much metals exchange data points to huge support at critical price points for physical Gold

also, with a large surplus with USA, and a sizeable deficit with Japan, China's resolution of the books has pressure on the JYen to rise vs US$
I realize plenty of Japanese industrial investment though inside China
so not all that imbalance hits the FOREX dance halls

I have said exactly once, TODAY, that commodity prices might lead China to repeg, which would render their massive imports cheaper
where the F did this come from?
"you seem stuck in a view that says commodity prices are going to "force" them to act"
copper is critical to their housing, electronics, and cars
they are paying 50% more than last late autumn
if they dont pass along higher production costs, they will be hit by profit margin squeeze
so pressure is clear to adjust somehow
and repeg is one option

you seem to focus on simple but correct answers, and show utter disdain for components that might work against your point
that is not constructive, even if your view prevails in the short and near term

you are getting increasingly difficult to discuss with
but I respect your views
you disagree with me at times
you disagree consistently with Russ
the deflationary world force is more powerful than we know
the Chinese stubbornness is deeper than most gauge
on this score we agree loudly

I have on numerous occasions cited the exact same point
China will continue until internal demand is sufficient to carry on without too much concern for foreign interests
do you remember perhaps 8-10 times I have said that

as for China sincerity, all you need to do is to review their commod market performance in the 1990 decade, and you will quickly conclude they attempt to fake out the western powers on a regular basis
you are not so naive as to take them at their word, are you?
I expect a political trade before long: Taiwan for financial concession
because I take them at their word: they want Taiwan

China is not called an enigma without reason
you seem far too content in your view toward them

I merely point out that rising commod prices might help to push China toward a decision, replete with extensive political pressures
AND YOU ACT WEIRD HERE

having a bad day?
a little constipated?
relax, my friend
your comments are not consistent with a thread monitor
/ jim

p.s. if you had to guess, where is your next big error?