If Bush is running as a wartime president, the electorate does not seem very impressed with his attack ads....
Bush Attack on Kerry's Defense Record Fails to Win Lead in Poll
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush failed to gain the lead in public opinion polls last week after challenging the national defense record of Democratic challenger John Kerry, who wouldn't interrupt his ski vacation to respond.
Bush and Kerry remain in a statistical tie a week after a television ad calling Kerry ``wrong on defense'' began running, a Newsweek poll found. The ads aired against the backdrop of Kerry snowboarding in Sun Valley, Idaho, while Bush was donning a flight jacket to visit soldiers in Kentucky and Vice President Dick Cheney questioned Kerry's ability to lead the U.S. in war.
``What you essentially have is a deadlocked race,'' said Evans Witt, who conducts polls for Newsweek as president of Princeton Survey Research International. ``And that isn't changing, even though Republicans have been going after Kerry for the past three weeks in an increasingly aggressive fashion.''
The Newsweek poll and others have shown that Americans trust Bush to do a better job protecting the U.S. from terrorism, an advantage the campaign has played up in ads. Kerry, 60, has responded by emphasizing his Navy service in Vietnam that earned him a Silver Star, Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts. Neither Bush, 57, nor Cheney, 63, served in the Vietnam War.
``The sitting president is always going to have an advantage on who do you trust,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the independent Rothenberg Political Report. ``He has the experience. He's there, he's the commander in chief.''
To take the advantage on issues of national security, Kerry ``needs to continue to push his own personal credentials in Vietnam,'' Rothenberg said. ``Kerry's got to go back again from time to time to his acts of heroism and patriotism.''
Campaign Response
With Kerry hiking, skiing and snowboarding in Idaho, his campaign officials have been left to respond to attacks without their candidate. When Cheney spoke last Tuesday, the Kerry campaign sent out four e-mails criticizing the vice president's remarks. They also arranged for Sandy Berger, former President Bill Clinton's national security adviser, to speak to reporters and criticize Bush and Cheney.
``Campaigns have phases, and this early onset of the general election doesn't mean you put out your best stuff now,'' said Joe Lockhart, Clinton's former press secretary. ``For now, Democrats have to feel good about the coordinated counter-attacks Kerry has been able to muster.''
Republican strategist Scott Reed, who managed former Senator Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign, said there's no need for Kerry to end his vacation and respond in person. ``It's absolutely not necessary to trot out all your good weapons in March,'' he said. ``You do that now, your material gets old.''
Even so, ```Kerry had a bad week,'' Reed said.
Spending Record
The Bush campaign this week is turning to criticism of Kerry's spending proposals, as part of a plan to attack the Democrat on a range of issues. Yesterday, former administration economic officials criticized 28 of Kerry's spending proposals and said they would cost more than $1 trillion over the next decade, leading to higher taxes and bigger deficits.
Kerry will spend Thursday in Washington and then resume his campaign in Michigan and Missouri later in the week. He should focus on the loss of jobs under Bush if he wants to overcome attacks before the Nov. 2 election, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
``If you end up letting your opponent dictate the agenda of the campaign, your opponent will win,'' Sabato said.
Cleland
On national defense, Kerry's campaign is determined to avoid a replay of the Senate race in Georgia in 2002. Democrat Max Cleland, a veteran who lost both legs and his right arm in Vietnam, was defeated by Republican challenger Saxby Chambliss, who ran ads saying Cleland was hurting the fight against terrorism because he voted against Bush's homeland security legislation.
Kerry, in a letter to Bush in February, called the campaign ``one of the most despicable'' ever conducted. Cleland is now organizing veterans to vote for Kerry.
Kerry joined the Navy after graduating from Yale University in 1966. He won the Silver Star for turning his boat back under attack in the Mekong Delta to rescue a soldier who had fallen overboard. The man, James Rassmann, came to Iowa to support Kerry and may have helped him win the state's caucuses.
Bush, a 1968 Yale graduate, joined the National Guard that year and was stationed in the U.S. until 1973. Cheney was granted deferments.
Help From McCain
Kerry got help last week from Arizona Republican Senator John McCain, a Vietnam veteran who said he doesn't believe Kerry is ``weak on defense,'' when asked on NBC's ``Today'' show. ``Senator McCain essentially just inoculated the Democratic opponent from these kinds of charges,'' Witt said.
McCain ``will campaign and supports President Bush for re-election but he will not attack his personal friend Senator Kerry,'' said Marshall Wittmann, a McCain spokesman.
The Newsweek poll taken March 16-18 found Bush and Kerry would each get 48 percent of the vote if the election were held now and included only the two of them. In a race that included independent candidate Ralph Nader, 70, Bush would get 45 percent support among registered voters, compared with 43 percent for Kerry and 5 percent for Nader, the poll of 1,006 adults found.
A Newsweek survey conducted Feb. 19-20 found that Kerry had an edge of 48 percent to 45 percent over Bush, within the poll's three percentage-point margin of error. In the latest survey, 56 percent said Bush would do the best job handling terrorism and homeland security, compared with 35 percent for Kerry. That was the first time Newsweek asked that question.
``When Cheney and Bush go so critical so early, it may help them win the day, but it also costs them some,'' said Gene Sperling, a Bloomberg columnist who worked on Clinton's 1992 campaign and served as his top economic adviser.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Richard Keil in Washington at dkeil@Bloomberg.net; Kristin Jensen in Washington at kjensen@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor of this story:
Glenn Hall at ghall@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 24, 2004 00:08 EST |
