SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: NOW who wrote (2863)3/24/2004 3:57:57 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
i am at this point agnostic about interest rates. which is a polite way of saying i am confused and have no idea....well, i actually have too many ideas, which is just as bad. and one of those ideas, which is my "dream scenario" du jour, is for rates to be jacked thanks to, say, a one month spike in payrolls. although the Fed has telegraphed it will need several months of growth to raise rates, i would not be surprised for the market to "extrapolate" rather rapidly from a single brightish data point.

given the rate volatility which reflects rampant speculation and hedging, any "dislocation" could cause a rapid rise, fundamentals be damned. (this is what got me nervous last week, when i closed out my long positions in long bonds.)

as an example of "dry powder" which could ignite in the event of any bearish data points--CI had a piece not long ago showing that the Carribbean Islands (i.e., hedge funds) are the third largest UST holders after Japan and China, i believe. the hedge funds are playing the UST carry trade--borrowing short at 1%, and lending long (buying 10yr USTs), and doing this with "modest" leverage of, oh, say 10x. so with the 10yr at 4% they can make 30% on equity if rates remain stable, plus any upside that comes from declining long rates.

but of course they are "hot hands" which can sell in a heartbeat if it looks like rates will rise. CI pointed to the vicinity of 4.65% or so on 10yr yield as a "danger area" where hedgies could depart en masse.

that's just one scenario, which could cause a rate spike unjustified by fundamentals, providing perhaps an attractive entry point. (much as, in the opposite direction, delta hedging by mortgage investors caused rates to plunge early last summer, again ahead of fundamentals).

that is one scenario which may or may not come to pass, but if it does, i will be on top of it.

all jmho, of course.



To: NOW who wrote (2863)3/24/2004 4:01:52 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
China acts to restrain banks by lifting rates

Beijing seeks to put some discipline on the weaker lenders

HONG KONG The Chinese central bank announced late Wednesday that it was raising the interest rates that it charged banks for loans and that it would require the weakest banks to hold larger reserves.
.
Taken together, the two measures represent a moderate tightening of monetary policy - a light tap on the brakes for an economy that is showing signs of overheating and rising inflation.
.
Economists said the two moves could slow somewhat the swift increase in bank lending that has produced a steep increase in China's money supply and raised fears that country's banks might be creating another wave of bad loans.
.
The two steps also show Beijing's growing determination to prevent banks from taking undue risks in lending under the assumption that the government will bail them out if they run into trouble. The moves will increase pressure on banks to shore up their finances to avoid extra costs in borrowing money and in holding greater reserves.
.
Under new interest rate rules, which are to take effect on Thursday, the central bank, the People's Bank of China, will have the flexibility to charge much higher interest rates to ailing banks. By contrast, its current policy is to charge essentially the same interest rates to all banks that want to borrow money.

The central bank said separately that the weakest banks would be required to hold 7.5 percent of their assets as reserves at the central bank starting on April 25. Banks are now required hold 7 percent of their assets as reserves, except for rural credit unions, which are allowed to hold 6 percent, because Beijing is trying to help rural areas.
.
Because the central bank pays negligible interest on reserves, the increase to 7.5 percent acts as a financial penalty on weaker banks and an incentive to operate more prudently.
.
Shortages of critical commodities and increasingly severe transportation bottlenecks are starting to fuel inflation. Several hours before the central bank acted, China's National Bureau of Statistics said wholesale prices of industrial goods in February were 3.5 percent higher than a year earlier.
.
That rise is the same pace of inflation at the wholesale level as in January and represents a sharp acceleration from most of last year, when inflation was virtually nonexistent.
.
With prices surging for a wide range of commodities, banks are starting to charge each other higher rates for loans, building into the interest rates their expectations for inflation in the coming months. The interest rate for three-month interbank loans has risen to 4 percent in recent weeks while the central bank has been charging just 2.7 percent for 20-day loans.
.
"The incentives to borrow from the central bank are getting higher," even though the central bank dislikes issuing such loans because they allow banks to avoid the discipline of having to impress other banks that they are creditworthy, said Joan Zheng, an economist in Hong Kong with J.P. Morgan.
.
The central bank said it would charge as much as 63 hundredths of a percentage point more on 20-day loans for some borrowers. The bank did not identify its criteria for how much of an increase to apply for each borrower. But Liang Hong, an economist in Hong Kong with Goldman Sachs, said the central bank was likely to charge the highest rates to small banks that had been lending with particular recklessness lately.
.
Typically owned by municipalities, the small banks have had trouble lately persuading bigger banks that they are creditworthy enough to borrow on the interbank market, and have been turning to the central bank instead, Liang said.
.
"This is a more clever way of doing this than raising reserves" for all banks, a move that would have also put a financial penalty on the four big state-owned banks that dominate Chinese banking, she said.
.
The New York Times Beijing seeks to put some discipline on the weaker lenders

HONG KONG The Chinese central bank announced late Wednesday that it was raising the interest rates that it charged banks for loans and that it would require the weakest banks to hold larger reserves.
.
Taken together, the two measures represent a moderate tightening of monetary policy - a light tap on the brakes for an economy that is showing signs of overheating and rising inflation.
.
Economists said the two moves could slow somewhat the swift increase in bank lending that has produced a steep increase in China's money supply and raised fears that country's banks might be creating another wave of bad loans.
.
The two steps also show Beijing's growing determination to prevent banks from taking undue risks in lending under the assumption that the government will bail them out if they run into trouble. The moves will increase pressure on banks to shore up their finances to avoid extra costs in borrowing money and in holding greater reserves.
.
Under new interest rate rules, which are to take effect on Thursday, the central bank, the People's Bank of China, will have the flexibility to charge much higher interest rates to ailing banks. By contrast, its current policy is to charge essentially the same interest rates to all banks that want to borrow money.
.
The central bank said separately that the weakest banks would be required to hold 7.5 percent of their assets as reserves at the central bank starting on April 25. Banks are now required hold 7 percent of their assets as reserves, except for rural credit unions, which are allowed to hold 6 percent, because Beijing is trying to help rural areas.
.
Because the central bank pays negligible interest on reserves, the increase to 7.5 percent acts as a financial penalty on weaker banks and an incentive to operate more prudently.
.
Shortages of critical commodities and increasingly severe transportation bottlenecks are starting to fuel inflation. Several hours before the central bank acted, China's National Bureau of Statistics said wholesale prices of industrial goods in February were 3.5 percent higher than a year earlier.
.
That rise is the same pace of inflation at the wholesale level as in January and represents a sharp acceleration from most of last year, when inflation was virtually nonexistent.
.
With prices surging for a wide range of commodities, banks are starting to charge each other higher rates for loans, building into the interest rates their expectations for inflation in the coming months. The interest rate for three-month interbank loans has risen to 4 percent in recent weeks while the central bank has been charging just 2.7 percent for 20-day loans.
.
"The incentives to borrow from the central bank are getting higher," even though the central bank dislikes issuing such loans because they allow banks to avoid the discipline of having to impress other banks that they are creditworthy, said Joan Zheng, an economist in Hong Kong with J.P. Morgan.
.
The central bank said it would charge as much as 63 hundredths of a percentage point more on 20-day loans for some borrowers. The bank did not identify its criteria for how much of an increase to apply for each borrower. But Liang Hong, an economist in Hong Kong with Goldman Sachs, said the central bank was likely to charge the highest rates to small banks that had been lending with particular recklessness lately.

Typically owned by municipalities, the small banks have had trouble lately persuading bigger banks that they are creditworthy enough to borrow on the interbank market, and have been turning to the central bank instead, Liang said.
.
"This is a more clever way of doing this than raising reserves" for all banks, a move that would have also put a financial penalty on the four big state-owned banks that dominate Chinese banking, she said.

iht.com

iht.com



To: NOW who wrote (2863)3/24/2004 4:09:19 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Contrary Investor totally Blasts Greeenspan

contraryinvestor.com

M



To: NOW who wrote (2863)3/24/2004 4:21:20 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Heinz on protectionism

Date: Wed Mar 24 2004 11:59
trotsky (why the clock can't be turned back) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
a very important article countering arguments in favor of protectionism. this one differs from the usual more generalized argumentations in that it gives a detailed example of the production structure in textiles ( which are mostly produced in China these days ) . you will be surprised - the entire structure is so deep and complicated, and involves entrepreneurs and investors in so many countries ( including of course the US ) , that it is nigh impossible , and indeed quite obviously foolish, to try to destroy or hamper it.
the division of labor has gone global - it does not recognize political boundaries. policies aimed at in fact REDUCING this division of labor will with absolute certainty impoverish us all.
mises.org