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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (2992)	3/27/2004 5:33:16 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Define a bond market rout. If he means junk I agree. If he means corporates or municipals then I say possible. Just rememeber the generals are the last to fall. If the stock market flushes and junk flushes I believe there will be a flight to safety. If we hit a recession(likley) and the US does not hike (or if the US cuts) treasuries are headed higher (yields lower). If China cools off demand or housing slumps in the US treassuries rally. If Soros wants to bet against all that, then more power to him. When people say they are bearish on bonds I want to know what they mean, cause I sure am bearish on junk bonds. Rest assured Soros has made mistakes before and he will make them again. If he is bearish on treasuries then I say he is wrong. All it takes is a US recession for US treasury bears to get hammered yet again IMO. I would not recommend betting that way. Note that I am betting on interest rate plays not treasuries, but I urge caution on being short treasuries. If there were futures on junk, I would be inclined to short them right now. M