Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (69118)	3/29/2004 8:25:46 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

Tough choice then! -g- I think rates could move down in a last reflation spurt into May-June time frame. I would not play the move, since the yield curve is a major leveraged play for everyone now. Stocks could rebound (or crash, not sure about that), and gold move to 500. Deflation should hit when rates go up regardless of the Fed. Could be when inflation shows up, or something else. Then we'll get a major deflation episode, as all carry traders rush to the jammed exit door, raising rates and bankrupting Joe 6p. Gold will likely also have a major setback in the summer, as rates start to rise. So will other commodities. We'll see. Low rates sustain all bubbles, imho. When they rise, everything else will deflate - stocks, real estate, gold, copper, cotton, coffee, etc. At least for a little while. Commodities are in a bull market, IMHO.